US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[Phoenix Dark]

Starts at about 20 minutes, intro is bullshit

Truly the best way to describe anything that involves Larry Summers

[Human Snorenado]

Rest easy guys, we have top people on this shit

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/congressmen-use-seagal-to-find-boston-attack-clues-in-russia.php?ref=fpa

[Great Rumbler]

 

[Brehvolution]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/world/middleeast/china-reaps-biggest-benefits-of-iraq-oil-boom.html?hp&_r=0

“We lost out,” said Michael Makovsky, a former Defense Department official in the Bush administration who worked on Iraq oil policy. “The Chinese had nothing to do with the war, but from an economic standpoint they are benefiting from it, and our Fifth Fleet and air forces are helping to assure their supply.”

The depth of China’s commitment here is evident in details large and small.

In the desert near the Iranian border, China recently built its own airport to ferry workers to Iraq’s southern oil fields, and there are plans to begin direct flights from Beijing and Shanghai to Baghdad soon. In fancy hotels in the port city of Basra, Chinese executives impress their hosts not just by speaking Arabic, but Iraqi-accented Arabic.

Notably, what the Chinese are not doing is complaining. Unlike the executives of Western oil giants like Exxon Mobil, the Chinese happily accept the strict terms of Iraq’s oil contracts, which yield only minimal profits. China is more interested in energy to fuel its economy than profits to enrich its oil giants.

Chinese companies do not have to answer to shareholders, pay dividends or even generate profits. They are tools of Beijing’s foreign policy of securing a supply of energy for its increasingly prosperous and energy hungry population. “We don’t have any problems with them,” said Abdul Mahdi al-Meedi, an Iraqi Oil Ministry official who handles contracts with foreign oil companies. “They are very cooperative. There’s a big difference, the Chinese companies are state companies, while Exxon or BP or Shell are different.”

 

[Great Rumbler]

:capitalismcry

[Phoenix Dark]

It's like the foreign policy equivalent of being friendzoned.

[Human Snorenado]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/06/gop-report-young-voters.php?ref=fpa

Young Obama voters who termed themselves "winnable" by Republicans also called the GOP "close-minded, racist, rigid, and old-fashioned."

[Great Rumbler]

The GOP can't change because the Tea Party has way too much power within the ranks of the GOP. Moderate Republicans are looking more often over their shoulders at challengers from the Right than they are at Democratic challengers. To say nothing of profit-driven RW media, that has realized that fear, anger, hatred, and hysterics result in far more money than sensible, thoughtful news reporting.

It's a vicious feedback loop crammed inside an echo chamber.

[Phoenix Dark]

Indeed. The party's idealogical core support is rooted in the south and heartland. Therefore they'll find it hard to quickly moderate due to the power structure being so far out of the mainstream.

Virginia is getting browner, and thus more democrat. Colorado is getting browner, Iowa's urban areas are getting bigger. The electoral college system makes it very hard for them to win.

[Great Rumbler]

And what about Texas? If the GOP loses Texas in the electoral college because of continued immigration across the southern border in the next decade or two, they've got nothing left to keep them in the Presidential game.

[Human Snorenado]

They're gonna be relevant as long as the filibuster rules in the Senate are what they are.  Fuck, the Dems could lose the Senate in 2014 potentially.

Long term though, shit should get fixed, especially after the next round of re-districting gets done in 2020 after the new Census.

[Phoenix Dark]

The redistricting/Census should go better this time. The biggest problem with 2010 was that it was a complete wipeout. Entire state governments were taken over meaning there was no need for compromise. I doubt 2020 will produce such a historic victory for either party, and thus the redistricting will be more even handed. Granted, both sides abuse gerrymandering. But next time both sides will get to do it, whereas in 2010 republicans were predominantly in charge.

http://www.270towin.com/

Play around with the map. With VA, IA, FL, NC, CO, NV, and OH as neutral/swing states, a democrat candidate would start the map at 251 electoral votes. Let's say you add NV and CO to the dem side; both states have exploding Hispanic and youth populations, and both were handily won by Obama: that gives democrats 266 solid electoral votes.

Meanwhile only 186 electoral votes are solid red.

[Human Snorenado]

I know it's not really kosher to say this, but there's no guarantee the AA vote will turn out at Obama levels when the Dems nominate a honky in 2016 and moving forward.

[Phoenix Dark]

Nothing wrong with that, it's historically accurate. The AA vote significantly raised for Obama, it's a fact. However a large part of that also has to do with blacks making up more of the nation than they did in 2000, for instance. So the total number of black votes will remain high enough, even if turnout drops. Same applies to young people, Hispanics, and other growing demographics.

The only shrinking demographic right now are white people, specifically older whites. Whites were 77% of the electorate in 2004; in 2012, they were 72%. By 2016 they'll likely be slightly below 70%. Likewise, voters over the age of 65 were nearly a quarter of the electorate in 2004. Last year they only made up 16%.

TLDR: The republican party, in its current form, is fucked. Barring economic collapse, scandal, terrorist attack, etc democrats should win the 2016 election based on demographics alone.

[AdmiralViscen]

AAs vote 95% Dem anyway. I don't think the benefit of winning 98% instead and the increase in turnout was enough to swing any states but maybe NC in 2008 and FL in 2012.

[Mandark]

Any individual turnout/demographic factor only really matters at the margins, and therefor in close elections.  Squeezing out 5-10% higher turnout could easily make the different in a hypothetical election that depended on an evenly split Ohio, for instance.

[Phoenix Dark]

It's worth noting that Bush won Ohio, and thus the election, in 2004 largely due to winning just enough of the black vote to deny Kerry victory. He received 16% of the AA vote there, 5 points better than his national average. Romney probably would have won Ohio if he had performed that "well." But Obama's performance in Ohio amongst blacks was so earth shattering that he didn't have a chance. A major part of Karl Rove's election night panic - outside of him wanting to get his rich donors off his ass - was that he didn't believe the total vote from Cuyahoga County (ie Cleveland) was enough to trump the uncounted republican counties remaining. He greatly underestimated the black turnout, as did every other Romney strategist.

Republicans pretty much gave up on the black vote after 2004, I doubt they'll do as well as Bush did for a very long time.

To me, the question is moreso whether black voters will show the same level of loyalty and support to a white democrat who's last name isn't Clinton. Are black people going to stand in line for 3-5 hours for Andrew Cuomo, for instance. I think some of that will depend on how far republicans continue to push voter suppression laws. That plan really backfired on republicans last year and emboldened blacks (and Hispanics). Ultimately the demographic increases should ensure blacks make up 13% or more of the electorate in 2016, and any regional losses due to long lines and less passion/loyalty to the nominee will be made up due to that nominee doing better among whites than Obama did.

TLDR: The next white non-Clinton nominee will do slightly worse among blacks while doing better among whites.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Nothing wrong with that, it's historically accurate. The AA vote significantly raised for Obama, it's a fact. However a large part of that also has to do with blacks making up more of the nation than they did in 2000, for instance. So the total number of black votes will remain high enough, even if turnout drops. Same applies to young people, Hispanics, and other growing demographics.

The only shrinking demographic right now are white people, specifically older whites. Whites were 77% of the electorate in 2004; in 2012, they were 72%. By 2016 they'll likely be slightly below 70%. Likewise, voters over the age of 65 were nearly a quarter of the electorate in 2004. Last year they only made up 16%.

TLDR: The republican party, in its current form, is fucked. Barring economic collapse, scandal, terrorist attack, etc democrats should win the 2016 election based on demographics alone.

The best part is even if the GOP wanted to change, they have their crazy ass base of voters and large donors that will suppress any moderate (read: electable) GOP candidates.  It's going to take a lot for them to turn it around, if they can.

[Phoenix Dark]

Exactly. Just look how the far right continues to crucify Chris Christie, despite him being a clear conservative/pro life/anti union/alpha male daddy/bully/etc. He's exactly what they need. Someone who has some bipartisan qualities, can appeal to a general audience, is very personable, is a solid debater, can sell conservative ideas to hostile crowds, etc.

But nope, bring in the clowns and Rand Paul or Ted Cruz. Perhaps an utter 2016 failure will be good for them, like the "I told you so" implosion of Goldwater in 1964.

[Brehvolution]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/04/john-boehner-god_n_3381883.html

Barely 36 hours after the caustic New Year’s Day vote, Boehner faced a coup attempt from a clutch of renegade conservatives. The cabal quickly fell apart when several Republicans, after a night of prayer, said God told them to spare the speaker. Still, Boehner came within a few votes of failing to secure his speakership on the initial vote, an outcome that would have forced a second ballot for the first time in nearly a century.

 

[Great Rumbler]

[Phoenix Dark]

The recent spat between Erick Erickson, founder of Red State, and moderate republican Josh Barro really highlights the problem the GOP faces.

Erikson's article is largely a hit piece on Barro and other "fake" republicans who are too moderate. His resentment is palpable, and goes beyond disliking Barro's political views:

Josh Barro is a late twenty-something gay male who hates conservatives, champions Obamacare, attacks Republicans for wanting to oppose it, supports the tax hikes that come with Obamacare, wants to rid the GOP of social conservatives, and gets fawning pieces of prattle composed by liberals who want everyone to know that their friend Josh Barro is a conservative reformer who wants less conservatism.

http://www.redstate.com/2013/06/04/on-conservative-reformers/

What does Barro's sexuality have to do with anything? Absolutely nothing, but it doesn't take a genius to realize why Erickson highlights it. The rest of the piece is riddled in inaccurate statements and bile. Barro's response hits the nail on the head, perfectly.

And for two decades, the Republican party’s strategy to overcome its disadvantage on economic issues has been a cultural appeal to people like Erickson: non-urban whites who feel threatened by social change. That is, the kind of people who think it’s an alarming trend that women are financially independent, or who think the most salient fact about a writer they dislike might be his sexual orientation.

This is a strategic problem for Republicans for several reasons. One is that the party’s reliance on a resentment-based appeal has caused its policy apparatus to atrophy. Erickson is not alone among conservatives in thinking that “academic and technocratic” approaches are best left to pointy-headed liberals. Another is that people like Erickson are a declining share of the electorate.

Basically, Erickson is derpy. And Erickson has big appeal to conservatives because lots of them are derpy. But the country is getting less derpy, and in time the Republican party will have to get less derpy, too. That’s my project, and I don’t expect Erickson to like it.

http://www.businessinsider.com/erick-erickson-shows-the-worst-in-gop-2013-6#ixzz2VG6WP3Yz

I recommend reading both articles because they really highlight the "closing of the mind" phenomena among many on the far right.

[Eric P]

more surprisingly not the first time "derpy" has been used in Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/top-10-video-game-characters-that-first-appeared-on-mobile-2012-4

8. Burger Cat

Although he's the relative newcomer to this list (his game debuted last week), we see tremendous potential for this portly cheeseburger-munching feline. Burger Cat's insatiable appetite combined with his derpy antics make him impossible to resist. We just want to run up and squeeze him. At this point, it remains to be seen whether Ravenous Games has plans for Burger Cat 2, but at the very least, a branded chef's hat and apron seem like bestsellers.

Read more: http://www.modojo.com/features/top_10_video_game_characters_that_first_appeared_on_mobile/#ixzz2VGE6H5Yl

[Joe Molotov]

My portfolio is being derpy this month.

[Positive Touch]

closing your mind is all you can do our your a conservative nowadays. the policies they've spoke on for decades have been implemented and have failed. they seriously do not have shit except demagoguery so while I feel for him for him for being a victim of ericksons bs, he joined a party that does this to damn near everyone else so fuck him.

[Oblivion]

In focus groups in January, the report said, young voters were asked to list leaders of the Democratic Party. "They named prominent former or currently elected officials: Pelosi, the Clintons, Obama, Kennedy, Gore. When those same respondents were asked to name Republican leaders, they focused heavily on media personalities and commentators: Bill O'Reilly, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck."

Good jon, GOP.

[Great Rumbler]

But it's so true.

[brawndolicious]

While it's true that Republican politicians actually seem to be afraid to criticize media personalities like Rush (even with the Sandra Fluke fiasco), most young people are obviously liberal even if they don't vote so it would make sense that if they do want to listen to the opposing side, that they would choose the most entertaining and least credible sources.

[Phoenix Dark]

Just saw a report that Hispanics make up 50.2% of all children enrolled in Texas schools this year, an increase from 49% last year. I'd post the Ron Paul it's happening gif but I'm on my iPod. The current GOP is so fucked.

[Mupepe]

I still believe there's a very real possibility of a hugely hispanic Texas that's still extremely conservative.  The majority I know are still extremely supportive of the GOP.  Even when it comes to immigration most of the ones I know believe the GOP will come out on their side and they always point to "Reagan's Amnesty" as historical proof.  Not to mention the religious fervor and homophobia that makes up a large part of hispanic culture.  But it's all anecdotal so who knows

[Joe Molotov]

The Texas Tea Party has a plan on how to attract minority voters:
http://www.texastribune.org/2013/06/04/gop-distances-itself-tea-party-leaders-remarks/

The Tea Party leader was speaking at a May 20 meeting of Republicans in Dallas. In an audio recording of the remarks, distributed to news outlets Tuesday by Democrats, an activist can be heard asking Emanuelson what the party is doing to attract black voters to the GOP ticket.

“I’m going to be real honest with you,” Emanuelson responded. “The Republican Party doesn’t want black people to vote if they are going to vote 9-to-1 for Democrats.”

[Great Rumbler]

Just saw a report that Hispanics make up 50.2% of all children enrolled in Texas schools this year, an increase from 49% last year. I'd post the Ron Paul it's happening gif but I'm on my iPod. The current GOP is so fucked.

[DCharlieJP]

The cabal quickly fell apart when several Republicans, after a night of prayer, said God told them to spare the speaker.

wait, this isn't an onion article ... this is real? This really happened?

I'd be deeply concerned that anyone with any power was claiming to hear messages from God...

Also - where was God on more pressing matters like, oh i dunno, recent tornados, floods, 9/11 etc? He's concerned about Boehner being ousted so much he uses the hotline to the Republicans but not when lives are in danger?

#DERPDERPLER

[Positive Touch]

Also - where was God on more pressing matters like, oh i dunno, recent tornados, floods, 9/11 etc? He's concerned about Boehner being ousted so much he uses the hotline to the Republicans but not when lives are in danger?

  you didnt know that god was a libertarian white supremacist?

spoiler (click to show/hide)

never forget that GWB made his final decision to go to war with iraq after he took a walk and said god told him it was cool to go on and do it

[close]

[DCharlieJP]

"Thou Shall not kill.... except for filthy oil squatters"

God sounds more and more like an arsehole by the day - he needs to get his PR team motivated, all that sitting around in paradise is making them lazy. I'd start tying "time in paradise" to results , then you'd see some motivation from these so called "do gooders"

[Joe Molotov]

Also - where was God on more pressing matters like, oh i dunno, recent tornados, floods, 9/11 etc? He's concerned about Boehner being ousted so much he uses the hotline to the Republicans but not when lives are in danger?

  you didnt know that god was a libertarian white supremacist?

spoiler (click to show/hide)

never forget that GWB made his final decision to go to war with iraq after he took a walk and said god told him it was cool to go on and do it

[close]

Turned out it was just Dick Cheney in the other room with a Talkboy. 

[Great Rumbler]

[Phoenix Dark]

holy shit

He just doesn't give a shit 

[Oblivion]

Checked out the right wing sites that reported that Strom Thurmond joke, and wouldn't you know it? The commenters are all pissed off that Biden would speak ill of the dead.

[Brehvolution]

The only difference is conservatives didn't give a shit when Bush was doing all this same shit.

• 54 ambassadores killed
• Using the IRS to target liberal groups
  Watching the press
  Firing judges
  Blowing the cover of a CIA agent

Can you imagine if the WH was sending talking points to a news channel?

I'm not defending Obama for any of this.

[Great Rumbler]

Now maybe we can finally get rid of the PATRIOT Act.

[Positive Touch]

doubt it; we didnt get rid of the phone tapping after that bs came out

[Great Rumbler]

Now maybe we can finally get rid of the PATRIOT Act.

 

[Human Snorenado]

[Broseidon]

[Positive Touch]

correction - twitter is still the land of the free!

[Joe Molotov]

PMing this thread to the FBI

[Great Rumbler]

http://www.theonion.com/video/cias-facebook-program-dramatically-cut-agencys-cos,19753/

[Great Rumbler]

And in boring, non-scandal news:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that the nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in the month of May, while the unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 7.6 percent.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/07/politics/nsa-data-mining/index.html?c=tech

Interested to hear how you guys defend Obama on this one.

In before: Durp Bush mad patriot act, I don't care he's helping, and You're a fucking neocon so fuck you.

Lol, already beatn...sheep gonna sheep I suppose.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

And in boring, non-scandal news:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that the nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in the month of May, while the unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 7.6 percent.

Super...now tell me how many people who made 55k + 5 years ago are making 30k now but being counted as gainfully employed

[Brehvolution]

Conservatives never envisioned the 'Patriot Act' to be used on them. They are 'special'.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

Conservatives never envisioned the 'Patriot Act' to be used on them. They are 'special'.

See this is the goddamn issue. Liberals are like 5 year olds, when thry are caught with hand in the cookie jar their first response is always "but but big bro did it to so I am less guilty."

Sigh...

[Great Rumbler]

I'm glad that you're just as upset about Obama doing it now as you were about Bush starting the program 7 years ago.

[Brehvolution]

Conservatives never envisioned the 'Patriot Act' to be used on them. They are 'special'.

See this is the goddamn issue. Liberals are like 5 year olds, when thry are caught with hand in the cookie jar their first response is always "but but big bro did it to so I am less guilty."

Sigh...

See this is the goddamn issue. Conservative wrongly see themselves as the 'big bro' and that it's OK when they do it. Fucking shitlords. Quit acting like it's your country and we are all just lucky you let us live here. Your entitlement needs to be reformed.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

I'm glad that you're just as upset about Obama doing it now as you were about Bush starting the program 7 years ago.

link me to where bush was utilizing all the service providers unilaterally. I'll wait.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

Anyone who calls people sheep unironically should be shot into the fucking sun.

I'll have to be evaluated and background checked by the gubment before I can enter space sir. At the current rate of bloat and idiocy I should be approved 12 years after I die.

Ah well atleast I'll have some great IRS parties to attend in thr meantime.

[Great Rumbler]

It's interesting to see how 12 years of increased NSA observation of...well...everything is basically all unraveling at once.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

It's interesting to see how 12 years of increased NSA observation of...well...everything is basically all unraveling at once.

Political jabs aside, I agree. I mean how long did our government think we would be okay with this?

[Eric P]

I guess no one else remembers Carnivore?