US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[benjipwns]

Also, pretty sure he didn't decide to then hold the country hostage to get his way afterwards.

Uh, he seized the White House and hasn't left it yet to the best of my knowledge.

[Great Rumbler]

I'm thinking there is now a non-negligible chance that we end up hitting the debt ceiling, Obama invokes the 14th, and we get the spectacle of the House impeaching the President for not allowing the country to default.

It's still not the most likely outcome, IMO, but its chances have definitely improved.

Which would still cause the markets to crash spectacularly, making the issue moot.

[Mandark]

Yeah, there's a plausible path to that.  If enough GOP congressfolk decide they need something out of this (for ideological reasons or to save face or whatever), and the Dems stay unified behind Obama to avoid future debt ceiling blackmail, then Boehner might decide the best way out is to punt the whole responsibility over to the administration and force them to use a 14th amendment justification/platinum coin/whatever to unilaterally avoid a default.

It would let Republican officeholders say they didn't back down, avoid a total economic meltdown, and give them a fresh outrage to for fundraising emails.  It'd be interesting to see the leadership's stance on impeachment at that point (utterly pointless with a Democratic majority in the Senate, but that won't necessarily mean it doesn't gather a bunch of steam).

[CatsCatsCats]

Wow. Just had a driver for one of our jobbers come in and try out his GOP radio talking points. So yeah, there's actually people out there who think this is all the democrats fault for "not negotiating."

[benjipwns]

I do think there's a lesson in there, about using symbolic votes and rhetoric to score points based off of public ignorance.  Obama didn't create debt hysteria, but public figures like him who ought to know better have reinforced it through years of comments like that.  Like all the "tough" rhetoric towards Iraq from the 90's making the war that much easier to launch in 2003.

Yeah, and it's basically short term thinking. It's less an indictment of Obama personally (other than his willing acceptance of it) than the entire way the "game is played." He's just the easiest to think of examples because he's currently the big man on campus and has so many more positions he naturally has to "take" many times. Another that comes to mind is him telling Hillary in the debates that if mandates worked we could just mandate everyone buy a house to end homelessness. (You can go back a bit to Bush's "humble" foreign policy and "restoring honor" which of course Republicans/conservatives have ready excuses for, after all 9/11 changed everything.)

And in some respects there's a lot of the Senate/Washington "speak" involved in these, where the posturing and explanations make sense in that world but not outside it. The classic example probably being John Kerry's "I actually voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it" which if you understand committees and amendments to bills, etc. can make sense but you still sound like an idiot to most people. Taking that same election, one of the advantages Dean had that probably contributed to his rise is that he could oppose Iraq and the Patriot Act, etc. without having to explain why the hell he voted for it. I always loved when the explanation some of the candidates used was "Bush tricked me or I wouldn't have." Oh, so you got tricked by a moron, great, let's put you in charge!

[Mandark]

My favorite example is the Dubai Ports World deal.

After years the Bush administration and its allies blurring the lines between various Arab/Muslim countries and organizations, they were shocked, shocked, to find a public backlash against letting a Middle East-based company manage several major US ports.

[benjipwns]

I had forgotten all about that one, it really had something for everybody.

Those who expressed opposition to the deal included: The New York Times, Michael Savage, Lindsey Graham, The New Republic, The John Birch Society, Sean Hannity, Lou Dobbs,[17] Laura Ingraham; Bill Frist and Hillary Clinton,[18] prominent politicians from two different parties; Bob Menendez, John Gibson,[19] Jon Corzine, and Peter King.[20] Senator Barack Obama stated his opposition to the deal.[21] So did Senators Carl Levin[22] and John Kerry.

Isn't that a motley crew.

Thankfully it all worked out in the end:

Dubai Ports World eventually sold P&O's American operations to American International Group's asset management division

[Joe Molotov]

I hope the $1 Trillion coin has George W. Bush on it.

[Mandark]

I hope the $1 Trillion coin has George W. Bush on it.

Pretty sure you can't have a living person on US currency.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Ronald Reagan

[close]

[Joe Molotov]

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/janet-yellen-be-named-fed-chair-wednesday-white-house-8C11360994

[headwalk]

To be fair, Obama never threatening a government shutdown or default. He took advantage of a political stunt, which is what the debt ceiling has been for years (until the last couple).

Which is why we should pass Mitch McConnell's bill to give presidents authority to unilaterally raise the ceiling, but allow congress to record a vote to show their disapproval.

or just don't have a ceiling. nobody else does.

[Oblivion]

Barton said Obama's attempts at health care reform and expanding gun control laws are evidence of his similarities to Hitler.

“It’s not just the death camps. (Hitler) started in the communities, with national health care and gun control. You better read your history. Germany started with national health care and gun control before any of that other stuff happened. And Hitler was elected by a majority of people,” she said.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/arizona-lawmaker-stands-by-facebook-post-likening-obama-to-hitler
 

I just read that. Someone wanna tell this dude that 1) Germany had UHC long before "de fuhrer" came to power, and 2) Germany CURRENTLY HAS UHC.

[Mandark]

Also, Hitler and the Nazi party weren't elected by a majority of the people, but who's counting?

[benjipwns]

Also, Hitler and the Nazi party weren't elected by a majority of the people, but who's counting?

Bill Clinton? 

[Phoenix Dark]

Eventually Boehner will do what he did with the 2011 budget and the fiscal cliff: crawl to Pelosi. The markets made some noise today but it's not a full throated "WTF" yet. Not worried.

A family friend works for the EPA and his furloughed. Thank god Obama isn't falling for the piecemeal funding gimmick, because there's no way republicans would fund the EPA lol.

[benjipwns]

I had a concussion so they had to ask me a bunch of questions ‘cause my mind wasn’t quite working and they said, ‘who’s the President?’ And I said, ‘an S.O.B.’ and he said, ‘good enough.’ (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)

Some of that analysis in the paper sounds familiar. 

That’s a big thing right now is when they were spying on us and looking at all the stuff and you know I mean years ago my parents were talking about it. They’re not like crazy and nuts or anything but I mean they always talked about it and I kind of tried to, no they’re not but now we’re finding out more and more information that everything we do you know, every Google search you make they know about. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)

He’s [Obama] turned the government into a spy agency on us. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)

I think what we fail to realize—that it has…to do with setting up an organization and a machinery that can control and spy on every asset of our lives, and control it. And once it’s infiltrated with all of the little webs…you won’t be able to undo it. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)

When you find out that they’re keeping all the records of your telephone conversations, every email, everything that you’re doing – the government is spying on you. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)

I hope they don't forget this under President Christie or Bush The Third. Especially the guy I bolded.

[Phoenix Dark]

I found this to be an interesting read. It's a psychological analysis of the Republican base, divided into three main factions (Evangelicals, Tea Party, and Moderates). It's somewhat cathartic to just think of them as racist morons, but trying to understand why they think the way they do is pretty interesting.

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/954/dcor%20rpp%20fg%20memo%20100313%20final.pdf

you see the Hillary comment in there, about moderate GOP women supporting her? 2016 is gonna be a bloodbath.

[benjipwns]

Republicans are delusional about Hillary as much as they were about Obama. On other forums I heard nothing from 2011-2012 about how Obama was going to lose because of the economy and scandals. Certain people were claiming he had no chance no matter who the GOP candidate was, would be a landslide. I was adamant from the time the cycle started that Obama would win (by less than 2008) and there's a post somewhere in April 2012 where I pegged every state but Florida right lol. (I wavered on Virginia later and wound up two off. smh)

A poll came out a couple weeks or so ago that showed Biden blipping up in the head-to-heads like 7-10 points. I talked about how this meant Hillary is going to be up 15-25 points on the GOP candidates in her head-to-heads based on the past polls. "No way, Hillary just isn't that well liked." "Impossible, Hillary is ruined by Benghazi." Anyway, http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1959 I assume that's only the first of many.

Delusional or they can't read polling trends properly. A little of both maybe.

I thought there was still a possibly she wouldn't run which gives the GOP a little room, and I can't imagine Biden is truly a serious contender for even the nomination, but I guess she's looking towards it now. I don't know why anyone who can wait would even bother to challenge her, she'll have it wrapped up pretty tightly.

[benjipwns]

I think in general, and this is just my outsider impression, that Republicans tend to overestimate their electoral power and Democrats tend to overestimate their political power.

This may be related to the underlying nationalist and Marxist philosophical frameworks of the two parties.

[Mandark]

Libertarians tend to overestimate how much the behavior of large groups of people can be attributed to explicitly ideological thinking.

[benjipwns]

Well, good thing I'm not a libertarian.

But I can see where I went wrong in writing that post, I was thinking in terms of historiography since that's where Marx's crimes are and the only thing I associate as "Marxist." So that's totally my fault. To elaborate, the idea is in that the Republicans overestimate how much they represent "America" and the cause of America thus why they always seem to be on the guaranteed path for electoral success but fall short (remember the PERMANENT MAJORITY demographics was providing after 2004?), while Democrats seem to think the hard work was getting elected and now the obvious progressive path of history will advance thus their stumbling over political roadblocks many of which were foreseeable.

Anyway, I'm just spit-balling grand theories again to see if anyone wants to take them up. I've got no problem with them just being dismissed or being properly criticized for organizing discrete individuals into ONE SIZE FITS ALL groups.

[Phoenix Dark]

Every libertarian is dungeon master of their own RPG. The carefully crafted rules don't tend to apply to other games, or real life.

Can Hillary lose? Sure of course. If the economy sucks and people are truly tired of Obama, democrats could have a tough time. Or if she faces Chris Christie, I could see him winning independents (or losing women by 30 points, considering his dick behavior would really look bad against a female). But if things go normally, the economy steadily improves, Obamacare isn't a total disaster, etc...I don't see her losing. On the flip side if she doesn't run, it's hard to see the American people electing Joe Biden president.

[benjipwns]

I can't see the economy or Obamacare really harming Hillary too much. I mean what's to stop her, worst case scenario, from basically making the argument she did last time? That Obama wasn't ready, but she can add he got things started so now it's time for the experienced hand to make things perfect. Plus the War on Women will be endless.

What could bring her favorable ratings down now that she's out of office? She was barely positive last time she ran, now she's at like +35 or +40.

[Phoenix Dark]

She's not going to shit on Obama unless things really get bad. In order to win she'll have to shore up the demographics he dominates, ie blacks and Hispanics. Clowning him isn't gonna fly. Although I definitely think she can make the "I told you so" argument about, well...



on a side note I wonder "why" she wants to be president, outside of the typical selfish reasons. Obama wanted to do something about energy dependence, and healthcare. Hillary ran in 2008 largely on healthcare. Now that hole has been pegged so...? She could just sit back and run up the score, jobs wise, considering the economy is projected to take wing after 2016, but that's far from ambitious.

[benjipwns]

I just think that base is on lockdown for a strong candidate like her. If it was Biden/Warren/Warner/O'Malley/etc. as the field, it's definitely more of a worry for the party in the general.

I would agree Christie is the biggest threat though.

[Phoenix Dark]

I don't think Warren would run even if Hillary didn't. O'Malley is definitely running, and has built up quite a liberal resume; he's like the anti Cuomo at this point. Outside of that...uh, Biden. I like Biden but I think he'll be too old in 3 years.

There may be some behind-the-scenes politics going on in Virginia which could culminate in Mark Warner becoming Hillary's VP but we'll see. I'll call this now: if Warner becomes Hillary's VP, Clinton slappy Terry McAuliffe (who is about to become Virginia's governor) will select Tom Perriello (former congressmen swept out in 2010, and strong Obama supporter) as his replacement in the senate. I tend to think some type of deal was reached to convince Tom Perriello not to run for governor this year, thus avoiding a Clinton/Obama battle; given how weak McAuliffe is, I really think Perriello would have crushed him in a primary.

[benjipwns]

I was just grabbing names really, they've been polling Warren almost every time for whatever reason. Wikipedia indicates that Howard Dean is interested in running again. Deval Patrick isn't.

The "potential" candidates list has some sensible and laughable ones: Jerry Brown, Cuomo, Gillibrand, Gregoire, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Jack Markell, Napolitano, Schweitzer, Sebelius.

I can't imagine most of these that would be serious couldn't "punt" until 2020/2024. Except Hickenlooper and Sebelius maybe.

The GOP list of "publicly expressed interest" is great. John Bolton, Scott Brown, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Huntsman, Ted Nugent, Rand Paul, Perry, Santorum, Trump. Here's hoping for a Bolton/Carson/Nugent/Trump debate possibly.

[Brehvolution]

 

[Brehvolution]

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/glenn-beck-considers-moving-canada-obama-administration-revolutionaries-start-scoop-people

Beck recounted a conversation he had with co-host Pat Gray about fleeing the country: “Pat said to me a little while ago, ‘If you’re serious, I might take you up on that move to Canada thing.’ I mean I really sincerely thought this weekend, you know, maybe it’s time to move to Canada.”

 

[headwalk]

she clearly wasn't ready for all the great things that obama sometimes wanted to happen.

[Joe Molotov]

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/glenn-beck-considers-moving-canada-obama-administration-revolutionaries-start-scoop-people

Beck recounted a conversation he had with co-host Pat Gray about fleeing the country: “Pat said to me a little while ago, ‘If you’re serious, I might take you up on that move to Canada thing.’ I mean I really sincerely thought this weekend, you know, maybe it’s time to move to Canada.”

 

Only then will he be free from the slavery of Obamacare.

[Human Snorenado]

Hey brehs, remember when George Will was a relevant political voice worth listening to? Nah, just fucking with you- me either. Looks like his escape pod to the Faux News right wing commentariat wildlife reserve has driven him to a full blown teahadist. I look forward to his columns flirting with birtherism in the coming years!

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/george-will-compares-obamacare-to-fugitive-slave-act-segregation

[ToxicAdam]

It's funny, as people get elderly and their hair remains the same, you start to realize that they have been wearing a toupee all along.

[Great Rumbler]

 

FEEL BOSS

[Phoenix Dark]

Not a Booker fan but this is an amazing ad

[ToxicAdam]

Looks like it's starting to unravel at the edges ...

In a move that highlights a growing rift in conservative ranks, Koch Industries -- the privately held energy conglomerate owned by  billionaires Charles and David Koch -- today distanced the firm from allied political groups lobbying to keep the government shut down unless Obamacare is defunded.

A letter, signed by the company's chief lobbyist and sent to members of Congress, says that Koch Industries has taken no position on the shutdown dispute in Congress "nor have we lobbied on legislative provisions defending Obamacare."

Boehner has alluded that it's not about Obamacare and now the Tea Party moneymen have ran away from it. Now, it's just a matter of figuring out what 'spending-cut bone' they can throw the savages and call it a day.

[Steve Contra]

Link?

[ToxicAdam]

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/09/20886586-kochs-to-congress-focus-on-spending-not-obamacare?lite

[Mandark]

Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor both had op-eds about the stalemate and neither of them mentioned defunding or otherwise kneecapping the ACA, so they're definitely trying to shift their ransom demands.  Good jon, guys.

[Phoenix Dark]

Interesting note: Paul Ryan released an op-ed in WSJ yesterday that focused on using the debt ceiling to leverage steep entitlement cuts. No reference to Obamacare, which led to far right interest groups attacking him.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/conservatives-furious-that-ryan-didn-t-address-obamacare-in-debt-proposals

Then today Boehner hastily took to the House floor, after a private meeting with Pelosi/Hoyer, and slammed Obamacare for the first time in awhile. Most of this week has been focused on Ryan's entitlement plan as leadership decided to move the focus away from Obamacare.

All this+Koch Bros throwing in the towel=end times. If House republicans reject Ryan's plan, or demand he add Obamacare language to it, I can't see many paths forward for republicans. Maybe Boehner will go back to limited CRs but that's a short term strategy.

[Phoenix Dark]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/165317/republican-party-favorability-sinks-record-low.aspx?utm_source=add_this&utm_medium=addthis.com&utm_campaign=sharing#.UlWiPNqDDHU.twitter

[Joe Molotov]

Unskew the polls? :'(

[Steve Contra]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2013/10/09/us/ap-us-shutdown-fidelity.html?hp

[Oblivion]

Looks like it's starting to unravel at the edges ...

In a move that highlights a growing rift in conservative ranks, Koch Industries -- the privately held energy conglomerate owned by  billionaires Charles and David Koch -- today distanced the firm from allied political groups lobbying to keep the government shut down unless Obamacare is defunded.

A letter, signed by the company's chief lobbyist and sent to members of Congress, says that Koch Industries has taken no position on the shutdown dispute in Congress "nor have we lobbied on legislative provisions defending Obamacare."

Boehner has alluded that it's not about Obamacare and now the Tea Party moneymen have ran away from it. Now, it's just a matter of figuring out what 'spending-cut bone' they can throw the savages and call it a day.

That about wraps it up.

I mean, how teahadist do you have to be when the fucking Koch Bros. and Freedomworks think you're going too far?

[Phoenix Dark]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2013/10/09/us/ap-us-shutdown-fidelity.html?hp

"but the debt ceiling is just an imaginary construct with no real world implications!"

[Mupepe]

Its really fun watching my 401k's YTD returns tank. Thanks for watching out for me GOP!

[Human Snorenado]

Its really fun watching my 401k's YTD returns tank. Thanks for watching out for me GOP!

Sorry mups, from time to time the tree of liberty has to be refreshed with the blood of your savings.

[DCharlieJP]

push them to meltdown, Bambsy - attach a demand of your own : tax on Catholic church and specifically say that the tax money will be used for contraceptive distribution for women.

[brawndolicious]

Wasn't there a rumor that Bill Clinton was having another affair in 2008 during the democratic campaigning season? It'll be 20 years since Monica Lewinsky when Hillary runs but I would rather not vote for her if it means a good chance of her husband getting caught and publicly shamed again, I think it would decrease the effectiveness of the office of the president to have marriage dysfunctions brought up by moral conservatives.

[DCharlieJP]

brought up by moral conservatives

are there any left who are still on their first marriage and/or aren't secretly "on the other bus" / sending fruity pictures to people ?

[brawndolicious]

In the real world, you don't throw stones from a greenhouse but this is politics. I hate to say it but I really did think that after Bush, the priority shouldn't have been on breaking gender/racial barriers over getting somebody who was basically a perfect non-controversial  mouthpiece for advancing liberal policies.

I would wouldn't mind voting for Hillary as a person, but You have to consider a politician's family too especially when their husband was up for impeachment. Hopefully the heart bypass surgery and age have made him calm down.

[Joe Molotov]

In the real world, you don't throw stones from a greenhouse but this is politics. I hate to say it but I really did think that after Bush, the priority shouldn't have been on breaking gender/racial barriers over getting somebody who was basically a perfect non-controversial  mouthpiece for advancing liberal policies.

Someone non-controversial like decorated war veteran John Kerry? Oh wait, now he HATES THE TROOPS OMG TRAITOR SCUM. And Al Gore, IF GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL WHY WE STILL GOT SNOW LOL LIBERAL HIPPIE SCUM?

[Barry Egan]

why am nintenho, those posts do not make any sense!

[Himu]

Don't a lot of people attach Hilary with the Benghazi situation and presumably won't vote for Hilary because of that?

[Great Rumbler]

And, really, the only people still holding onto BENGHAZI!!!!! are the people who were never going to vote for a Democrat anyway.

[Phoenix Dark]

Don't a lot of people attach Hilary with the Benghazi situation and presumably won't vote for Hilary because of that?

Only republicans who wouldn't vote for her anyway. Benghazi was a CIA fuck up we may never get all the details about.

[Himu]

While true, I'm basically taking away the idea that maybe people naturally link Hilary with Obama's presidency. Which won't really require much long term memory as much as it'd require basic association.

Then again going by the report on the last page it doesn't really matter.

[Eric P]

this guy was the front runner for NYC mayor for a bit.

[DCharlieJP]

It occurred to me today that the most , apparently, suspicious of any overarching control system are also fundamentalist christians ....


yup, i don't want some elected force governing my every life decision ... PRAISE JESUS MY LORD AND SAVIOUR WHO SAYS CONDOMS ARE BAD AND THAT THE fegs SHOULD ALL BURN IN HELL

edit : My other fave from today : "Who cares about Fidelity? i mean - who even knows who they are!" #golfclap

[Great Rumbler]

this guy was the front runner for NYC mayor for a bit.

Can't keep his pants on, though.