US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[Mandark]

http://www.nber.org/oregon/

Actually a bunch of neat stuff coming out of that experiment, for those that are interested.

[benjipwns]

The article doesn't say anything about the average cost per visit. Just a hunch, but I'd bet that the average ER cost of the insured people was lower than the average cost of the uninsured.

Wouldn't this require being able to discern what the actual cost is? Consider in the cases of both the insured and uninsured the "cost" is often negotiated and differs from patient to patient. Even if the uninsured patient is initially billed the "full" cost this doesn't mean it'll actually be collected. (Same with insured patients.) Then factor how many of these "costs" for both the hospital and insured are tied to what Medicare determines them to be through a process that's...well, rather interesting.

I've never understood all of this focus on costs (well, okay, I have, you know what I mean though) when we don't even have a grasp on any of it because of deliberate obfuscation and I thought the goal was getting people more quality health care.

Increased ER use would also be expected, since ER visits can be exorbitantly expensive

But increased ER usage doesn't automatically mean it's being used for expensive or even emergency care. Indeed just reading the quote we have people who were previously uninsured, thus could have avoided primary care doctors and instead used the ER for these purposes. Now that the cost to them for doing this has been (or at least said to have been) reduced they aren't necessarily going to change their methods but could have instead increased their usage of what they're already familiar with.

EDIT: From the helpful link Mandark provided:

Medicaid increased use for visits classified as "non-emergent," "primary care treatable," and "emergent, preventable." We found no statistically significant change in the use of visits classified as "emergent, non preventable."

Medicaid increased outpatient emergency department visits (visits that did not result in a hospital admission). We found no statistically significant increase in emergency department visits that did result in a hospital admission.

[Mandark]

What struck me about that particular graph wasn't even the difference between the treatment and control groups, but that "primary treatable" was easily the designation with the most ER visits.  That is, for the people being studied, ER visits were for things that could have been taken to the family physician much more often than actual emergencies.

Would like to see how that differs across income and ethnic groups, but not enough to go down that Google rabbit hole tonight.

[benjipwns]

I believe most every recent study of ER visits has found that. IIRC, the number one factor is basically people having some kind of pain and thinking it's a heart attack or burst colon or a tumor.

CDC's numbers: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/ervisits.htm

Number of visits: 129.8 million
Number of injury-related visits: 37.9 million
Number of visits per 100 persons: 42.8
Percent of visits with patient seen in fewer than 15 minutes: 25.1%
Percent of visits resulting in hospital admission: 13.3%
Percent of visits resulting in transfer to a different (psychiatric or other) hospital: 2.1%

Ten reasons people go to the ER: http://health.howstuffworks.com/medicine/10-common-reasons-for-er-visit1.htm

Chest pains, abdominal pain, toothaches, sprains and broken bones, upper respiratory infections, cuts and contusions, back pain, foreign objects in the body, headaches.

The second to last one is apparently 94% of all Bore member ER visits.

Other stuff has shown people like mothers (primarily single) taking their kids to the ER for checkups/common ailments/etc. One focused on cities was how you can sometimes have fewer outside doctors (except John Becker) available but plenty of hospitals so it's just common culture that you head into the ER for anything. Although this guy suggests it's mostly dumb people with private insurance wasting ER resources: http://hschange.org/CONTENT/1204/1204.pdf

[benjipwns]

http://www.washingtonblade.com/2014/01/02/clay-aiken-actively-considering-run-congress-sources/

Gay singer and “American Idol” runner-up Clay Aiken is actively considering a bid to represent North Carolina’s 2nd congressional district in the U.S. House, according to two Democratic sources familiar with his plans.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the 35-year-old Raleigh native has taken initial steps for a run, including consulting with political operatives in Washington, D.C., about a bid for the seat.

One Democratic source said Aiken  made phone calls to gauge support, talked to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and has met with figures in Raleigh, N.C., about a potential bid. Although it’s unclear when Aiken might formally announce a decision, the source said Aiken is “actively considering” it and “sounding and acting like a candidate.”

[Great Rumbler]

Fortunately, his time on American Idol will have prepared him for the election cycle.

[Phoenix Dark]

+10 republican district. Good luck...

[Oblivion]

I went to the ER a lot as a kid, mostly cause of asthma attacks.

mediCAL

[benjipwns]

Started by two volunteers in January 2013, Ready for Hillary quickly became a nationwide grassroots movement encouraging the former Secretary of State to run for president in 2016. Now, with over one million supporters and over 25,000 grassroots donors, Ready for Hillary is the vehicle through which Americans of all walks of life are expressing their support for a potential Hillary run. Every day, thousands more people are joining this movement, signing the petition encouraging Hillary to run, and showing her that if she decides to run for president, she will have a grassroots army of supporters behind her who are ready to help her win.

GRASS ROOTS GRASS ROOTS GRASS ROOTS GRASS ROOTS GRASS ROOTS

[Joe Molotov]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/05/politics/liz-cheney-senate-race/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

After getting a fake fishing license and selling out our sister to prove her cred, Liz Cheney's apparently not going to run after all. 

[benjipwns]

She coulda been a contender.

[Phoenix Dark]

destroy your family relationships to attain political placement and then drop out the race, brehs.

[benjipwns]

She should have stayed in Virginia, ran there, easily won the GOP nomination, lost by 15 points. Then ran again in 2018 to lose by ten points. Meanwhile, keep working for Fox making stupid money.

Somebody didn't think this through. Especially since she declared after Enzi already said he was running again.

[Phoenix Dark]

I'd bet money that she hired a contracting firm to poll the state, and they produced skewed data.

[benjipwns]

Maybe she hired Dean Chambers.

EDIT: From his site: http://qstarnews.com/2013/12/07/conspiracy-review-was-michelle-obama-really-born-as-a-man/

[benjipwns]

Liz Cheney issued a statement Monday morning announcing her plans to discontinue her campaign for a Wyoming Senate seat, citing "serious health issues" in her family.

"Serious health issues have recently arisen in our family, and under the circumstances, I have decided to discontinue my campaign," Cheney said in the statement. "My children and their futures were the motivation for our campaign and their health and well-being will always be my overriding priority."

Cheney, who was challenging Sen. Mike Enzi in the Republican primary, said that she and her husband wanted to thank all of her supporters for their help.

"As a mother and a patriot, I know that the work of defending freedom and protecting liberty must continue for each generation," Cheney continued. "Though this campaign stops today,  my commitment to keep fighting with you and your families  for the fundamental values that have made this nation and Wyoming great will never stop."

[Great Rumbler]

As a mother and a patriot, I know that the work of defending freedom and protecting liberty must continue for each generation

[ToxicAdam]

We need an oil painting of Liz Cheney boldy crossing the Potomoc, draped in a flag, while nursing a baby on her exposed breast.

[Joe Molotov]

Sometimes you have to take a step back and focus on what's really important. Your heterosexual family members.

[Human Snorenado]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/utah_gay_marriage_on_hold

I'm guessing all the gay couples in Utah that wanted to get married did so already tho, and shit is inevitable anyway.

[Phoenix Dark]

As a mother and a patriot, I know that the work of defending freedom and protecting liberty must continue for each generation

Sometimes something bad happens to you and you can't celebrate with a family dinner at Olive Garden.

[Brehvolution]

Could it be as simple as this? The Koch backed Obamacare misinformation tour is just because the ACA killed the black liquor tax credit. Right wing billionaires want their socialism back.

http://green.autoblog.com/2010/03/30/tax-credit-for-black-liquor-eliminated-under-health-care-refor/

[benjipwns]

The Koch Brothers have been supporters of libertarian causes and enterprises for decades, David was Vice Presidential nominee for The Party in 1980, Charles is one of the three founders of the Cato Institute. They shifted towards supporting Republicans directly for much the same reasons Ron Paul returned to the GOP, though IIRC this is more David's doing than Charles who prefers the think tank stuff. They've ramped up political spending (and perhaps been successful with it) in the last five years or so which may be why the media finally noticed them. (Though they're still a far cry from how much they've dumped into medical research/the arts/education/etc. over the years, they're getting closer.)

Might have to do with how they're getting older so why not throw it away?

[Human Snorenado]

They should just focus on buying one state to be their playground, it worked for Art Pope in NC.

[Brehvolution]

Libertarian causes like being paid $2B a year by the government for burning black liquor to power your own mills. It's not a subsidy either. $2B in cash payments.

[Great Rumbler]

[Joe Molotov]

What's the Vegas odds on Rodman getting purged?

[benjipwns]

Libertarian causes like being paid $2B a year by the government for burning black liquor to power your own mills. It's not a subsidy either. $2B in cash payments.

All I was saying is that they don't need cronyist reasons and it's unlikely to be the only reason as they're proven true believers who have already been dumping money into these types of things.

Anything else is just black butter.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[benjipwns]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/matt-miller-what-obama-should-do-now/2014/01/08/bdcaf232-7868-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html

In practice, this would mean a massive, three-year public education campaign that Obama would personally lead. The president would acknowledge that divided power means the nation won’t do the things he thinks are important while he’s at the helm. Political advisers will say this signals fatal weakness. Obama would know it shows integrity that the public will respect as strength.

...

Skeptics will scoff (I can hear their laughter already), but under this approach Obama would run the domestic presidency like a livelier version of PBS educational programming. We’ve had plenty of presidents who were essentially actors; this would be our first president as TV host.

What might this look like? For each major issue area, Obama would appoint a bipartisan task force of civic, business, media and nonprofit leaders to organize regional events and prepare accessible briefing materials for citizens. He’d also recruit the nation’s most talented television producers in an “Ask not what your country can do for you” spirit.

He wouldn’t just preach to the converted — he can’t, since his goal would be to create 60-plus percent support for policies that future presidents and Congresses might enact. He’d thus do televised town hall events in tea party districts and engage continually with leaders and citizens of every stripe.

...

Today both sides talk past each other; Obama could make us discuss it with each other.

There could be more, but you get the idea. (It’s also worth focusing on a short set of issues to make this a project Americans can digest.) Obama’s final campaign would use clear metrics to track the movement of public opinion on the nature of these problems, and on support for real (as opposed to make-believe) solutions.

lol

[Human Snorenado]

Welp, that about wraps it up for Chris Christie in 2016

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/big-trouble-for-chris-christie

"Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee," Christie Deputy Chief of Staff Bridget Anne Kelly told David Wildstein, according to emails obtained by TPM. "Got it," Wildstein replied.

[Phoenix Dark]

Warning Mandark *trigger alert*

http://progressivepopulist.org/2014/01/08/fox-news-guest-refers-minimum-wage-black-teenage-unemployment-act-lower-4-hour-video/

[Great Rumbler]

Real patriots never cut and run, unless it's the War on Poverty.

[ToxicAdam]

I think it's hilarious that the same shitheads that were defending Obama for the past 6 years over every minor, drummed up 'scandal' he was involved in are now jumping up and down about the Chris Christie bridge thing. What a bunch of douchebags.

[Brehvolution]

Just like the personal directives Obama gave to the head of the IRS office in Cincinnati and watching the Benghazi shootings on a lazy-boy via dronecam, Obama doesn't rely on top aides to handle his dirty work. Unlike that pussy, Chris Christie.

[Great Rumbler]

I think it's hilarious that the same shitheads that were defending Obama for the past 6 years over every minor, drummed up 'scandal' he was involved in are now jumping up and down about the Chris Christie bridge thing. What a bunch of douchebags.

You mean the countless "scandals" that resulted in dozens of special investigations but no actual evidence of any wrongdoing? Unlike Christie's case, where wrongdoing has all but been proven outright, and two high-ranking administration officials have already been forced to resign with more to follow.

[Great Rumbler]

On Sept. 9 and Sept. 10, [Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey] Wildstein was apparently receiving ongoing updates about the "traffic disaster" in Fort Lee. On Sept. 10, Wildstein said to someone via text message that Fort Lee's mayor had reached out to [Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey] Bill Baroni, another Christie appointee, expressing worries about "getting kids to school."

"Help please. It's maddening," [Fort Lee Mayor] Sokolich wrote in a message to Baroni.

That message appears to have been passed on to Wildstein who wrote, "Is it wrong that I am smiling?"

It is unclear who Wildstein was corresponding with, however the recipient of his message said, "No."

"I feel badly about the kids," wrote Wildstein. "I guess."

"They are the children of Buono voters," joked Wildstein's correspondent, referring to Christie's challenger in last November's election, Barbara Buono.

[ToxicAdam]

The kids?! Think about the kids!

This is an outrage. Hopefully we can get a full expose on this harrowing tale of imprisonment.

[Great Rumbler]

Yeah, because abusing a government institute to enact political retribution totally isn't a big deal at all...

[Brehvolution]

[Phoenix Dark]

I agree with ToxicAdam in the sense that if damning emails from important White House staff emerged on just about any issue, the natural liberal defense would be "this looks bad but there's still no evidence that Obama was directly involved." Which would be true, and is true for Christie until someone proves otherwise.

TPM has pretty much gone 100% Bridge so far, msnbc is outraged, etc. Ultimately I think this is more about driving up Christie's negatives for 2016 than anything else. The story reinforces the bully narrative, and will be mentioned over the years even if no wrong doing is proven. Similar to how Daily Kos still bangs the drum about the Scott Walker "John Doe" thing, despite no one else caring.

Most interesting thing: he's not getting much defense from conservatives. Drudge, Washinton Times writers etc are enjoying this. Really shows how the Sandy hug rustled their jimmies, considering they were begging him to enter the race in spring 2012.

[CatsCatsCats]

Sanders 2016 

[TakingBackSunday]

I can't bring myself to become outraged about this Christie thing.  Maybe its because is jubilantly fat and funny to look at

[Great Rumbler]

It is possible for there to be a middle ground between "This is nothing" and "BRIDGEGHAZI!!!!!!!"

Mostly, I think it's funny that he's the guy who has been propped up by the media as this new kind of Republican who was going to work together with both sides and bring about a new era of whatever, then it turns out, nope, he's pretty much the same as all the others, just a little better at hiding it.

[Great Rumbler]

"It is true that I met David in 1977 in high school," Christie said in a press conference. "He's a year older than me. David and I were not friends in high school, not even acquaintances in high school."

Christie said he wanted to clear the matter up because he felt some stories implied "a closeness between me and David that doesn't exist." The governor also said Wildstein came to the Port Authority through another former appointee connected to the scandal, Bill Baroni, and he merely gave his permission for the hire.

[Steve Contra]

I think it's hilarious that the same shitheads that were defending Obama for the past 6 years over every minor, drummed up 'scandal' he was involved in are now jumping up and down about the Chris Christie bridge thing. What a bunch of douchebags.

If the right weren't so dysfunctional they'd be circling the wagons, instead they are still mad Christie had the audacity to have a major disaster in his state. 

[ToxicAdam]

Why would they 'circle the wagons' for Christie?


How pathetic that it's viewed as a positive ideal. "Gotta protect our team"

[Trent Dole]

It's what they usually do and you know it, Tox. Reagan doctrine and all that. But Chris is a center-y guy at a time when the far right of the party is extremely vocal and active so it's not happening. There's also the fact that this is beneficial to anyone else considering a run (and inevitable win, Dems have never had two administrations in a row in my lifetime) at the White House in 2016.

[Great Rumbler]

Christie helped Obama get re-elected, so he's basically been but in the GOP shame cube.

[benjipwns]

The real scandal here is the incompetence. You don't put this stuff in writing, you just suggest it to somebody who suggests it to somebody else and things just coincidentally get done.

(and inevitable win, Dems have never had two administrations in a row in my lifetime)

If you were born in 1933, it wouldn't be until you were 56 that Republicans had won two administrations in a row. Indeed, until now, that would be the only instance in which there were two administrations in a row in your lifetime where the prior President had not died or resigned and elevated the Veep.

Hillary!'s got this on lockdown, Christie was Hillary!'s only threat, Hillary! doesn't have any others inside or outside her own party. What are they going to do? Attack Hillary! over Benghazi? What difference, at this point, does it make?

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

This scandal doesn't mean much of anything.  In fact, anything up until October 2015 that gets treated like a scandal doesn't mean shit.

At any rate, Christie doesn't stand much of a chance.  The GOP will likely make gains in 2014 (barring a huge scandal and this isn't it), resulting in a renewed optimism from the far right, just in time for the 2016 primaries.  Christie will have to deal with the fact that he isn't a "true conservative", which means he will need to battle it out with losers like Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Rick Santorum (probably).  By the time he gets away from the midwest or the south, he will be so far behind that he won't be able to rely on coastal states to pick up the slack, ask Rudy Giuliani how well his strategy of avoiding the midwest and the south did for him.

I kind of find it annoying that people are talking about 2016 already.  It's kind of a repeat where people are already trumpeting the "inevitability" factory of Hillary, which worked so well for her in 2008.  But whatever gets those clicks I guess is what matters...

[benjipwns]

Clinton then was polling at like 40-45% against a bulk of candidates in the 10-20% range and had unfavorables almost as high as her favorables. Now Hillary! is polling at like 60-70% against 10-15% for Joe Biden who polls at 30-40% against everybody else, there's barely anybody else in sight, and Hillary! has great favorable numbers now.

She's up like 10-20 points against every non-Christie Republican, back in 2006 those head-to-heads among all potential candidates were basically ties. And I don't see how those are going to drop against the actual candidates. What is she going to do to hurt those numbers now that she's not in office? Come out as a lesbian?

[Human Snorenado]

Shit's a long ways out but I'm personally of the opinion that all the Dems need to do to win the Presidency in 2016 is nominate a woman. Any woman, doesn't matter if it's Hillary! (tm Benji) or not.

Then just sit back and let the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot enough to drive enough women to the polls.

[benjipwns]

I stole it from Muskie and Lamar Alexander:



Apparently Nelson Rockefeller too:

[CajoleJuice]

doesn't make it any less annoying

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Clinton then was polling at like 40-45% against a bulk of candidates in the 10-20% range and had unfavorables almost as high as her favorables. Now Hillary! is polling at like 60-70% against 10-15% for Joe Biden who polls at 30-40% against everybody else, there's barely anybody else in sight, and Hillary! has great favorable numbers now.

She's up like 10-20 points against every non-Christie Republican, back in 2006 those head-to-heads among all potential candidates were basically ties. And I don't see how those are going to drop against the actual candidates. What is she going to do to hurt those numbers now that she's not in office? Come out as a lesbian?

I don't disagree with you.  The thing is, as it stands in early 2014, Hillary is probably the only real electable Democrat.  There's really nobody else out there and given that this is probably her last chance and given the Clinton's bottomless bucket of fundraiser money, they could probably hold off any Andrew Cuomos or Elizabeth Warrens from gaining much traction.  Regardless, 2014 is way too early to be know anything for sure.

[CatsCatsCats]

Shit's a long ways out but I'm personally of the opinion that all the Dems need to do to win the Presidency in 2016 is nominate a woman. Any woman, doesn't matter if it's Hillary! (tm Benji) or not.

Then just sit back and let the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot enough to drive enough women to the polls.

I'd so vote for Elizabeth Warren, if that miracle happened.

[benjipwns]

Yeah, primary goal this time will be simply keeping that field clear. She couldn't do that as easily eight years ago with John Edwards basically running from the day after the 2004 election, rumors about Gore or Kerry, then Obama launching his campaign put another legitimate anti-Hillary candidate in the mix.

This time I don't even know if there's enough desire for even a non-Hillary candidate. Biden's essentially a stand-in for that more than a real candidate probably, Warren/Cuomo/etc. seem to be playing this as futile and will wait if they even have the ambitions, so you have names like O'Malley and Schweitzer (and Dean) who basically have nothing else to do and can use a run to build up their name more than anything else or a Sanders who can run because why the hell not?

The party being in power has some to do with this because you took some of these various governors like Vilsack and Napolitano who may have otherwise made quixotic bids and tied them to the administration mast, and the Republican gains in 2010 eliminated a lot of other farm team potential while building up their own.

I'd imagine someone like Feingold (or Bayh?) would rather just get his Senate seat back at this point than to use that as a springboard.

I'll shocked if there aren't like 20 Republican candidates.

[Phoenix Dark]

Schweitzer is a very good candidate, and could challenge Hillary. Her negatives have really gone up, which I suppose is only natural, and they'll only increase in 2015/2016. There's the issue of Clinton fatigue as well, not to mention that she'll be directly tied to the Obama administration. Who knows how Obama will be viewed in 2015/2016. If the economy continues to improve we'll be around 6.5 unemployment if not lower, Obamacare will have 9-15 million people, etc.

Of course, that's the optimistic take. If the economy crashes again, Obamacare turns out to be a disaster, etc then Hillary will be very vulnerable as the "more of the same" establishment candidate. Make no mistake,  Schweitzer is not a blow over, he won't trip over himself, and he's more entertaining than O'Malley and Cuomo. I think Biden is a nonstarter, especially after Gates took a dump on him this week. I had read before that Biden is often the "devil's advocate" in meetings, but it sounds like he really rustles the military's jimmies with that shit.

Republicans: Christie will survive this bridge thing if he's telling the truth. If not, GG. I'd imagine Scott Walker benefits the most, as he is an establishment candidate who doesn't really offend tea party radicals.

[benjipwns]

She won't be tied negatively to the Obama administration in any way. The surrogates will make sure of that even if she doesn't openly.

If things get worse, then the strong experienced hand of Hillary! will be the only thing that can save us. She'll fix health care, Bill will advise on how to fix the economy. Foreign policy will be simple for the greatest Secretary of State in American history. You're going to trust the world in crisis to some right-wing NRA nut job hick MAN from Montana who wants the Keystone Pipeline to flood the Mississippi River?!? et al

[TakingBackSunday]

I'm personally pulling for Schweitzer.  His DNC speech was my favorite by far other than Bill's.