Obviously a lot of things can [and do] change, but I think that 2016 is an amplification of 2012 while bearing little in relation to 2008, where the GOP was deflated after 8 years of Dubya and the Dems were latching onto Hillary as the savior. Oh wait, that last part actually sounds familiar. The thing about Hillary, and we're kinda seeing this again 8 years later, is that she's kinda not that exciting, so somebody that generates excitement [like Obama and like Bernie] has a real shot at overtaking her despite her popularity and name-recognition, and it certainly helps that the media is always looking for some dirt on her.
But anyway, to bring it back to the GOP, the far-right fringe was constantly looking for a savior in 2012 who could take down Obama and thumb his nose at the limp-wristed GOP leaders, but they never found that person and each surge was quickly followed by a collapse. That slice of the electorate has only gotten more angry at Obama and more frustrated with GOP leadership in the three years since. Trump in 2015 is basically the congealed id of that far-right fringe, given shape and an extremely loud and forceful voice, and he's got the money to keep an effective campaign going for as long as he wants to [along with free publicity for every word he utters]. So, the question is how far does this amplification carry Trump and who gets scraped off the bottom of the polling barrel to replace him? Jeb's fall has sent him all the way down to the dregs, Carson just doesn't seem like he's going to last very long once things heat up, and everybody else is polling within the margin of error.
I guess what we wait for now is to see whether Carson's fall pushes Jeb back up or lifts Trump even higher.
