US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[Mandark]

Why not? The poor and disenfranchised seem like ideal voters for the candidate promising the most amount of services and cash transfers. I mean we’re arguing unknowable hypotheticals, but it seems sound to me.

But we already have lots of results of voters not behaving that way.

If you're going to go that hard against the empirical data, you better have some REALLY good reasons to do so, other than wishful thinking.

[Mandark]

Honestly, I just think Bernie simply believed he's been winning the poor vote, since (I think) he does better among lower-income voters when you control for race.

To me that's more plausible than him believing in some split among the civically-engaged and -disengaged poor, which isn't a theme I've seen him talk about elsewhere.

[Samson Manhug]

I was specifically referring to the disenfranchised non-voters in the primaries that Bernie was referring to, not in a general. I do not think Bernie will win the nomination nor do I think that counting on non-voters is a good campaign strategy.

And excuse my ignorance, Mandark, but I just haven’t seen the empirical data you are referring to. Tasty Meat’s link didn’t really make sense, but I am interested in seeing these results. I have just been thinking about how social democrats came to power and stayed in power in Scandinavia, which is mostly by attracting forever voters by providing services that once given guarantee party loyalty for life.

[Mandark]

The lowest bracket used in exit polls is <$30k and Hillary has mostly beaten him in that category too.

I mean the data of the Democratic primaries this year.  Bernie's promising more transfers than Hillary but has been losing to her among the lowest income bracket.

The Scandinavian political economy is pretty different from the American one.  They're much smaller countries with much, much higher rates of union membership and ethnically homogeneous populations.

Honestly I know very little about the history of social democracy developing in those countries, but I strongly suspect it's the last factor that's the most important.  Ethnic and racial divisions have figured in very heavily in American politics for centuries now, and that can't be helpful for building a movement on the economic solidarity of the working class.

[Samson Manhug]

For anyone else interested, I found the data Mandark is referring to. Clinton is indeed doing better with the <$30,000 crowd and maybe the more there are the worse he does, surprisingly:

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/26/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html

Apparently the Cruz-Kasich alliance didn't even last one day:

But at his own campaign stop in Philadelphia on Monday, Mr. Kasich tamped down Mr. Cruz’s triumphalism. Voters in Indiana, Mr. Kasich said, “ought to vote for me,” even if he would not be campaigning publicly there. He added, “I don’t see this as any big deal.

Mr. Kasich, in Pennsylvania, grew quickly agitated at the suggestion that his deal with Mr. Cruz reflected desperation.

“Me? No, I’m not desperate — are you?” he asked a reporter. “Are you desperate?”

[benjipwns]

During a telephone interview with "Fox & Friends," Trump was asked about a tweet from Lena Dunham on Monday in which she vowed to leave the U.S. for Vancouver if he is elected president.

Trump's response: "Well, she's a B-actor. You know, she has no — you know, no mojo."

"I heard Whoopi Goldberg too. That would be a great thing for our country," Trump said, as the show flashed a graphic of celebrities who it said would leave the U.S. for Canada, including Dunham, Jon Stewart, and Rosie O'Donnell, with whom the Manhattan real-estate mogul has feuded for years.

When co-host Steve Doocy pointed out that O'Donnell's name on the list, Trump remarked, "Now I have to get elected."

"Now I have to get elected because I'll be doing a great service to our country," he said. "Now it's much more important. In fact, I'll immediately get off this call and start campaigning right now."

[Tasty]

"Multiply that by how many birds like him"

"Ohh no, if anything caucuses count double"

[Am_I_Anonymous]

Man all this Sanders talk has me hungry. Who wants to buy a minority a sandwich today? 

[I'm a Puppy!]

I pay my taxes. I already gave a minority a sandwich today. 

[I'm a Puppy!]

During a telephone interview with "Fox & Friends," Trump was asked about a tweet from Lena Dunham on Monday in which she vowed to leave the U.S. for Vancouver if he is elected president.

Trump's response: "Well, she's a B-actor. You know, she has no — you know, no mojo."

"I heard Whoopi Goldberg too. That would be a great thing for our country," Trump said, as the show flashed a graphic of celebrities who it said would leave the U.S. for Canada, including Dunham, Jon Stewart, and Rosie O'Donnell, with whom the Manhattan real-estate mogul has feuded for years.

When co-host Steve Doocy pointed out that O'Donnell's name on the list, Trump remarked, "Now I have to get elected."

"Now I have to get elected because I'll be doing a great service to our country," he said. "Now it's much more important. In fact, I'll immediately get off this call and start campaigning right now."

The promise of a US without Lena Dunham or Rosie O'Donnell? Trump drives a hard bargain.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

I pay my taxes. I already gave a minority a sandwich today. 

[Joe Molotov]

Man all this Sanders talk has me hungry. Who wants to buy a minority a sandwich today? 

Get seriously pissed on GAF after they grudgingly take it.

[Joe Molotov]

http://thinkprogress.org/lgbt/2016/04/26/3772708/ted-cruz-transgender-bathrooms-at-home/

If you're trans and you need to take a dump, go do it at home because MAH KIDS.

[Trent Dole]

And he's the supposedly saner option for his party.

[Great Rumbler]

The speed with which conservatives pivoted away from THE GAYS and have jumped on the BATHROOM PREDATORS bandwagon has caused innumerable cases of whiplash across the nation.

[brawndolicious]

Ted was probably the kid who never shit in the school bathroom (because germs) but just jerked off in there. Every. Single. Day.

[brob]

there is a real need for harsh policing of hypothetical sexual assaults in bathrooms of a kind that has not been reported, but please be kind to this convicted child rapist http://boingboing.net/2016/04/24/leading-republicans-send-lette.html

[Rufus]

there is a real need for harsh policing of hypothetical sexual assaults in bathrooms of a kind that has not been reported, but please be kind to this convicted child rapist http://boingboing.net/2016/04/24/leading-republicans-send-lette.html

In the wake of the sexual abuse allegations, journalists noted that Hastert was a supporter of measures which sought to enhance punishments for child sexual abuse, such as the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act and the Child Abuse Prevention and Enforcement Act of 2000.[192][193] In 2003, Hastert publicly called for legislation to "put repeat child molesters into jail for the rest of their lives."[193]

Not him though, no...

[Tasty]

GAF primary threads always great for fuckery

[Great Rumbler]

Ted was probably the kid who never shit in the school bathroom (because germs) but just jerked off in there. Every. Single. Day.

[TakingBackSunday]

Good Christ

[Joe Molotov]

60 letters asking for lenience when...

Hastert's plea deal has him facing a maximum sentence of six months in prison on the financial crimes charge.

Law and order for thee but none for me.

[jakefromstatefarm]

Theodora

[Tasty]

Clinton's won PA, MD, and DE. Sanders currently leading in CT and RI.

Going off the called states so far, Hillary's gained 142 delegates so far tonight, with Bernie getting 66 at the time of this post.

[Joe Molotov]

The Dynamic Duo of Cruz and Kasich got btfo.

[Tasty]

RI has been called for Bernie.

Hillary's pledged delegate lead crossed 300 tonight. It's sitting at 315 right now.

[I'm a Puppy!]

So Berine's just 300+ delegates behind. He's still good. He's still good.

[octopushover]

for posterity

[Tasty]

CT has flipped from 52/48 Sanders to 52/48 Clinton.

[Tasty]

CT officially called for Hillary.

After tonight she's gained 76 on Sanders, increasing her total lead to 320 pledged delegates.



Wish she could have swept RI too for a repeat of Super Tuesday II, but that was always a longshot. Demolishing him by 31 points in the second-biggest state tonight was more than enough.

[tiesto]

Well we knew last week when Bernie lost NY... but yeah it's over for him. Damn

[Tasty]

Well we knew last week when Bernie lost NY... but yeah it's over for him. Damn

There there fam, it'll be OK



...as long as we beat Trump or Cruz in November

[Great Rumbler]

Also, I don't know what the expectations were, but Trump cleaned up in all five states tonight and won with 50%+ in all of them.

[benjipwns]

60 letters asking for lenience when...

“We all have our flaws, but Dennis Hastert has very few. He is a good man that loves the Lord. He gets his integrity and values from Him. He doesn’t deserve what he is going through. I ask that you consider the man that is before you and give him leniency where you can,” [Tom DeLay’s letter] concludes.

[Mandark]

Also, I don't know what the expectations were, but Trump cleaned up in all five states tonight and won with 50%+ in all of them.

These states were meant to be Trump territory, but I think he outperformed the polling average in all the states, which he almost never did until NY.

Consensus seems to be it's more likely that he gets to 1237 now than it was before.

[Great Rumbler]

[Trent Dole]

Trump's really going to be the Repub nominee huh.

[Oblivion]

(Image removed from quote.)

People will remember the legendary raid on Rosie O'Donnell's compound for generations. 

[Mandark]

Trump's really going to be the Repub nominee huh.

This GOP election cycle is like the Golden State Warriors season.  We might not see fuckery/greatness like it again for a long time and shouldn't take it for granted.

[Human Snorenado]

What a time to be alive, brehs

[brawndolicious]

I would like to take this time to point out I fucking hate The Don and will vote for a liberal before I ever voted for him.

[Tasty]

This is too mean to post earnestly but too useful to not post. So:

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[benjipwns]

Multiple Facebook pages supporting Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders were abruptly removed from the social media network late last night following a cyberattack.

The pro-Sanders pages — which include Bernie or Bust, Bernie Believers and Bernie Sanders is my HERO — were collectively followed by over a quarter-million supporters of the Vermont senator, and many had been operating continuously since Sanders launched his campaign last year.

The attack began around 9 p.m. EDT and lasted until just after midnight, when most of the pages recovered their accounts.

yasss queeen

[james]

Also, I don't know what the expectations were, but Trump cleaned up in all five states tonight and won with 50%+ in all of them.

Doesnt matter, he has a clear ceiling 62%. Just ask Nate. The guy has zero chance of winning.

[I'm a Puppy!]

NPR is reporting that Ted Cruz will make a major announcement about his campaign at 4pm.
Typically "major announcements" about campaigns are announcements of dropping out. Could it be possible that Cruz is less delusional than Berine?

[james]

NPR is reporting that Ted Cruz will make a major announcement about his campaign at 4pm.
Typically "major announcements" about campaigns are announcements of dropping out. Could it be possible that Cruz is less delusional than Berine?

$2 he's announcing his VP pick

[benjipwns]

NPR is reporting that Ted Cruz will make a major announcement about his campaign at 4pm.
Typically "major announcements" about campaigns are announcements of dropping out. Could it be possible that Cruz is less delusional than Berine?

No:

Ted Cruz said that he will be making a "major announcement" at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, and proclaimed he will keep on fighting despite Donald Trump's decisive wins on Tuesday night.

The Texas senator indicated it could be an announcement for a vice presidential pick

Rumor is that it's Carly. (Whose daughter was murdered by marijuana.)

[benjipwns]

Bernie needs to drop the fuck out.

Clinton's refusal to quit in 2008 haunts her in 2016
While some allies want her to nudge Sanders out, others say he's only behaving like she did eight years ago.

[I'm a Puppy!]

You know, the more I think about it, I bet the Cruz announcement is just going to be an endorsement or something. If it was either a VP or dropping out there'd be a leak or more whisperings about it.

[Tasty]

Bernie needs to drop the fuck out.

Clinton's refusal to quit in 2008 haunts her in 2016
While some allies want her to nudge Sanders out, others say he's only behaving like she did eight years ago.

Except she was losing since the second month, never regained her lead, and was never at any point losing as badly as Bernie is now.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

Bernie needs to drop the fuck out.

Clinton's refusal to quit in 2008 haunts her in 2016
While some allies want her to nudge Sanders out, others say he's only behaving like she did eight years ago.

Home does it pay to schill Clinton like this? Are you paid by post or by letter?

Except she was losing since the second month, never regained her lead, and was never at any point losing as badly as Bernie is now.

[Tasty]

AiA tears

[Rufus]

Shills are annoying because they're shills, not because they're pulling for the wrong thing/person. Especially high-frequency shilling.

[Tasty]

Shills are annoying because they're shills, not because they're pulling for the wrong thing/person. Especially high-frequency shilling.

Uh excuse me, you will use the dollar sign when address me as a $hill.

[Rufus]

I'm to cheap for that. Fanboy it is.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

AiA tears

[Tasty]

Spank me daddy

[Am_I_Anonymous]

Spank me daddy

[tiesto]

You know, the more I think about it, I bet the Cruz announcement is just going to be an endorsement or something. If it was either a VP or dropping out there'd be a leak or more whisperings about it.

Yeah that's what I'm thinking, someone Indiana related...