US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[Syph]

MTW, you do realize that it's shitpolls that are swinging his model in the other direction now?

this. wait a couple days for more (as in quantity) respected polls to be conducted and posted.
I don't really understand the Nate Silver hate on this particular page either; he's admitted he fucked up on Trump winning the nomination, has had Hillary ahead forever, and still does. And what is difficult to explain? Her boost came from the videotapes being leaked, and the tightening is happening before the FBI effect is factored in because, well, there is always a tightening as the election date draws near.

Personally, I'm expecting a 3-4% Clinton victory, but I would no be surprised if it were closer, simply because I think that what messed Silver up many months ago is exactly what might happen at the general election, namely, embarrassed voters or voters who aren't polling correctly aka closet/secret/begrudging Trump supporters actually end up voting Trump.

What I really want though is for neither Hillary nor Trump to get 270 electoral votes and for Evan McMullan to win Utah and have the House vote lol cause that would be crazy and quite frankly par for the course.

Esch if you're reading I think this post was civil. 


edit: also for anyone else reading fivethirtyeight, you should be aware of polls vs polls +

[benjipwns]

[TakingBackSunday]

MTW, you do realize that it's shitpolls that are swinging his model in the other direction now?

this. wait a couple days for more (as in quantity) respected polls to be conducted and posted.
I don't really understand the Nate Silver hate on this particular page either; he's admitted he fucked up on Trump winning the nomination, has had Hillary ahead forever, and still does. And what is difficult to explain? Her boost came from the videotapes being leaked, and the tightening is happening before the FBI effect is factored in because, well, there is always a tightening as the election date draws near.

Personally, I'm expecting a 3-4% Clinton victory, but I would no be surprised if it were closer, simply because I think that what messed Silver up many months ago is exactly what might happen at the general election, namely, embarrassed voters or voters who aren't polling correctly aka closet/secret/begrudging Trump supporters actually end up voting Trump.

What I really want though is for neither Hillary nor Trump to get 270 electoral votes and for Evan McMullan to win Utah and have the House vote lol cause that would be crazy and quite frankly par for the course.

Esch if you're reading I think this post was civil. 


edit: also for anyone else reading fivethirtyeight, you should be aware of polls vs polls +

This has been brought up and has been proven to be basically fret-wetting from the left.  If this were going to affect results, it would only be very very minimal.

[TakingBackSunday]

This might be the most infuriating video I've watched in months.  This fucking cunt needs to retire from the court.  Or die, I don't give a shit.

That's from page two of this thread 

[Phoenix Dark]

Wikileaks is reporting he's actually Jeff Gannon.

[benjipwns]

let's remember that while Nate wrote a very long and convoluted explanation for his Trump calls in the primaries, the basic point (and failure of his predictions) was that he rejected the standard modeling in favor of endorsement based modeling even though past polling wasn't a worse base to use in the first place and probably was even better for determining overall competitiveness; there's also the fact that he tried to model future events with only current info, primaries have candidates drop out, explode, etc. the general is set in stone in this manner, Nate couldn't model where support went as candidates fell out because it was unpredictable (as shown in Pew's later polling), he saw Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Newt's implosions in 2012 as something to "correct" for rather than recognizing that they were "accurate" as of the time, but Perry and Cain both disqualified themselves before Iowa and weren't something to worry about (they only were slightly overestimated in late game polls)

had he stuck solely to the polling he would have been right about Trump and Cruz

there is so much polling now that his model both fluctuates daily because of it but stays with the same overall "answer" as the outliers are both factored in by the "now-cast" and filtered out by the longer term forecast, there's no point in adjusting for a few outlier polls because you know they'll be corrected for

this is the same reason RCP, which does nothing but run a straight average of only the latest polls (538 keeps old polls in to smooth out the hiccups) gets the same effect in their average, Hillary bumped up two points due to the polls and now she's actually lower than she was before those outlier polls came out because they moved into and out of the model along with tighter late election polls, her position on the RCP electoral map barely changed because that's controlled solely by the state polls

i think that too many people don't realize what Nate's punditry really is, it's based off the same stuff he did for Baseball Prospectus but with politics, he's not coming from the same political punditry world as everyone else...in that regard he's no worse than any other experts he just lays out the entrails to be criticized and tries to explain when he's wrong rather than just pretending it never happened...he used to get in the same fights and make the same type of calls regarding sports (and still does actually)

Nate's model is more conservative than everyone elses, but they're all saying the exact same thing 95% of the time, especially his and Wang who is somehow his rival?...and both of them rarely disagree with RCP, which again just does a straight average of the newest polls with no weights:
Nate: 306-232, 50-50 D
Wang: 321-217, 50-50 D
RCP: 304-234; 51-49 R

RCP would be in agreement on the Senate except they count even a 0.1 lead as a win in their no toss-ups method. (Heck is at +0.3 in NV.)

[Syph]

MTW, you do realize that it's shitpolls that are swinging his model in the other direction now?

this. wait a couple days for more (as in quantity) respected polls to be conducted and posted.
I don't really understand the Nate Silver hate on this particular page either; he's admitted he fucked up on Trump winning the nomination, has had Hillary ahead forever, and still does. And what is difficult to explain? Her boost came from the videotapes being leaked, and the tightening is happening before the FBI effect is factored in because, well, there is always a tightening as the election date draws near.

Personally, I'm expecting a 3-4% Clinton victory, but I would no be surprised if it were closer, simply because I think that what messed Silver up many months ago is exactly what might happen at the general election, namely, embarrassed voters or voters who aren't polling correctly aka closet/secret/begrudging Trump supporters actually end up voting Trump.

What I really want though is for neither Hillary nor Trump to get 270 electoral votes and for Evan McMullan to win Utah and have the House vote lol cause that would be crazy and quite frankly par for the course.

Esch if you're reading I think this post was civil. 


edit: also for anyone else reading fivethirtyeight, you should be aware of polls vs polls +

This has been brought up and has been proven to be basically fret-wetting from the left.  If this were going to affect results, it would only be very very minimal.

what is fret-wetting? I'm unfamiliar with that phrase

[benjipwns]

fretting about bedwetting

[benjipwns]

NYT throws away its credibility in order to elect Trump:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html

For much of the summer, the F.B.I. pursued a widening investigation into a Russian role in the American presidential campaign. Agents scrutinized advisers close to Donald J. Trump, looked for financial connections with Russian financial figures, searched for those involved in hacking the computers of Democrats, and even chased a lead — which they ultimately came to doubt — about a possible secret channel of email communication from the Trump Organization to a Russian bank.

Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any link between Mr. Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.

Intelligence officials have said in interviews over the last six weeks that apparent connections between some of Mr. Trump’s aides and Moscow originally compelled them to open a broad investigation into possible links between the Russian government and the Republican presidential candidate. Still, they have said that Mr. Trump himself has not become a target. And no evidence has emerged that would link him or anyone else in his business or political circle directly to Russia’s election operations.

Investigators, the officials said, have become increasingly confident, based on the evidence they have uncovered, that Russia’s direct goal is not to support the election of Mr. Trump, as many Democrats have asserted,

[benjipwns]

http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/john_kasich_follows_through_on.html

Gov. John Kasich, who had vowed not to vote for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, voted Monday by absentee ballot.

His choice? Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

...

The vote essentially is a symbolic gesture. Because McCain is not among the 18 certified write-in candidates in Ohio, Kasich's vote for president will not count.

seems appropriate somehow

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[Syph]

NYT throws away its credibility in order to elect Trump:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html

For much of the summer, the F.B.I. pursued a widening investigation into a Russian role in the American presidential campaign. Agents scrutinized advisers close to Donald J. Trump, looked for financial connections with Russian financial figures, searched for those involved in hacking the computers of Democrats, and even chased a lead — which they ultimately came to doubt — about a possible secret channel of email communication from the Trump Organization to a Russian bank.

Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any link between Mr. Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.

Intelligence officials have said in interviews over the last six weeks that apparent connections between some of Mr. Trump’s aides and Moscow originally compelled them to open a broad investigation into possible links between the Russian government and the Republican presidential candidate. Still, they have said that Mr. Trump himself has not become a target. And no evidence has emerged that would link him or anyone else in his business or political circle directly to Russia’s election operations.

Investigators, the officials said, have become increasingly confident, based on the evidence they have uncovered, that Russia’s direct goal is not to support the election of Mr. Trump, as many Democrats have asserted,

wait didn't you hear? The FBI is working for the Trump campaign which is actually Russian controlled so this is just misdirection but if the Russians are controlling the FBI then which emails has Putin been reading?
but then who was phone?

fuck this election cycle

[Dickie Dee]

f'real gonna miss this dude 

[benjipwns]

Doesn't compare to the groundbreaking Gary Johnson interview.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

JAGUAR JOHNSON

[close]

[Human Snorenado]

Yeah Sam Wang (who is more respected in stats circles) has had Clinton winning consistently.  Not sure what you are talking about.

Basically...

[benjipwns]

With write-in access finished, Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (America Delta Party/Reform Party), Laurence Kotilkoff (Independent), Tom Hoefling (America's Party) and Mike Maturen (American Solidarity Party) now are on enough ballots to potentially win the election.

They officially join Evan McMullin ("has no girlfriend"), Darrell Castle (Constitution), Dr. Jill Stein (Green), and Jaguar Johnson (Libertarian) as candidates who could theoretically win the election.

Gloria La Riva came up short with 210 EVs. Thankfully, the proletariat revolution will handle what elections failed to do.

[Syph]

so somehow i missed this today but donna brazile resigned/got pushed out from CNN?
 

[recursivelyenumerable]

what is fret-wetting? I'm unfamiliar with that phrase

Contemporary-classical technique for playing microtonal music on a standard guitar

[benjipwns]

so somehow i missed this today but donna brazile resigned/got pushed out from CNN?
 

she had already left back in July to become interm DNC Chair, they basically just didn't resign her to come back after the election as a pundit

[benjipwns]

[agrajag]

what is fret-wetting? I'm unfamiliar with that phrase

Contemporary-classical technique for playing microtonal music on a standard guitar

microtonal music 

[chronovore]

A guy at work is claiming that people were going around offering $100 to vote for Clinton yesterday at the polling station he went to. 

"I would have taken it, but I don't want her dirty money"
"Oh my god.  It's all so rigged"

 

Take the money, cast secret ballot for Trump, have a nice dinner at Hillary's expense.  What a dumbass.

This is literally what Trump does in business deals, so I don't see why his supporters should see any differently.  ( )

[recursivelyenumerable]

what is fret-wetting? I'm unfamiliar with that phrase

Contemporary-classical technique for playing microtonal music on a standard guitar

microtonal music 

   

[agrajag]

what is fret-wetting? I'm unfamiliar with that phrase

Contemporary-classical technique for playing microtonal music on a standard guitar

microtonal music 

   

Brah needs to tune his piano.

I get it, just that my western imperialist ears aren't used to that noise. Give me the Western chromatic scale any day 

spoiler (click to show/hide)

I fucks with some Middle and Far Eastern music that has microtones, but they don't go overboard with it, it sounds natural

[close]

[Trent Dole]

@mitchellvii

I'm less offended by someone saying the N word than I am by the entire Democrat Party treating black voters like slaves.

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/793128747469791232

I keep reading his twitter handle as 'mitchevelli'

[agrajag]

@mitchellvii

I'm less offended by someone saying the N word than I am by the entire Democrat Party treating black voters like slaves.

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/793128747469791232

I keep reading his twitter handle as 'mitchevelli'

The Don Killuminati

[benjipwns]

http://time.com/4551711/hillary-clinton-emailgate/

I am mad. I am mad because I am scared. And if you are a woman, you should be, too. Emailgate is a bitch hunt, but the target is not Hillary Clinton. It’s us.

The only reason the whole email flap has legs is because the candidate is female. Can you imagine this happening to a man? Clinton is guilty of SWF (Speaking While Female), and emailgate is just a reminder to us all that she has no business doing what she’s doing and must be punished, for the sake of all decent women everywhere. There is so much of that going around.

The people are demanding Clinton act like moral exemplars, thundering from the pulpit like Jonathan Edwards or Cotton Mather. But Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh and their many conservative friends are not remotely Clinton’s moral superiors. They are simply bullies, using gender discrimination to give a veneer of plausibility to their accusations.

FBI Chief James Comey has shown himself to be another bully of the same kind. He has repeatedly talked down to Clinton, admonishing her as a bad parent would a 5-year-old. He has accused her of “poor judgment” and called her use of a private email server “extremely careless.” If Comey’s a Boy Scout, here’s one old lady who will never let him help her across the street.

If the candidate were male, there would be no scolding and no “scandal.” Those very ideas would be absurd. Men have a nearly absolute right to freedom of speech. In theory, so do women, but that, as the creationists like to say, is only a theory.

Clinton’s use of a personal server has not been found to be a crime. Then how is it that so many have found the charge so easy to make, and make stick? How has her use of the server made plausible all the claims that she is “deceptive” and “untrustworthy”?

It’s not about emails; it’s about public communication by a woman in general. Of course, in the year 2016, no one (probably not even The Donald) could make this argument explicitly. After all, he and his fellow Republicans are not waging a war on women. How do we know that? They have said so. And they’re men, so they must be telling the truth.

(How to tell the genders apart: men are truthful; women are liars. Now you know.)

But here’s Hillary Rodham Clinton, the very public stand-in for all bossy, uppity and ambitious women. Here are her emails. And since it’s a woman, doing what decent women should never do—engaging in high-level public communication—well, there must be something wrong with that, even if we can’t quite find that something. We will invoke the terminology of criminal law to account for our feelings. She’s getting away with treason! Put her in jail! We can’t quite put our fingers on it, but the words sure do make a lot of people feel better, so they must be right.

Clinton has repeatedly apologized, but apparently not enough for her accusers. In fact, her apologies were her only mistake. By apologizing she acknowledged guilt. But that’s what women are supposed to do (because women are always guilty of something). Several members of her own staff sent emails grumbling that she was a recalcitrant apologizer. But her instinct was right: apologizing has only made her weaker. Her opponent never apologizes, not really. So accusations slide off his back like water off a duck’s.

Imagine the emails the Trump campaign must be exchanging … Now those would be legitimately interesting!

[benjipwns]

wait...that was written by a woman, so all of it is a lie

[benjipwns]

gasp, people are saying

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

It's unlikely anyone is going to know anything about those e-mails until well after the election is over, given that there are about 700,000 e-mails to sift through.  However Jeffrey Epstein is someone that would impact both the Clintons and Trump who used to be friends with the guy before he got busted.

[Brehvolution]

(Image removed from quote.)
gasp, people are saying

[Joe Molotov]

woah if true

[james]

DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY

With just DAYS before the election, SEPTA has gone on strike. No buses, subways, or trolleys. 4 hours notice was given.

Will deep blue Philly turn red?

More on Hannity.

[VomKriege]

The Lolita Express?

Pussy Grabon was already taken.

[Joe Molotov]

Kasich wrote in John McCain, lmao.

[tiesto]

(Image removed from quote.)
gasp, people are saying

The Lolita Express you say?

[CatsCatsCats]

I don't think the country would ever recover from the tsunami of rage cum if Hillary was actually exposed as a pedophile

[benjipwns]

"how did we get hillary-chan all wrong  "

[Phoenix Dark]

"I don't see anything wrong with a little bump and grind when compared to TRUMP planning to deport Muslims and Hispanics, defund Planned Parenthood, and allow the Russians to influence our country"

[Great Rumbler]

(Image removed from quote.)
gasp, people are saying

ESPN and all of its arrogant, clueless, politically correct Nazi announcers and owners are just another Democrat Super pac. We stopped watching after they messed with Rush so unfairly, and now the anti American sentiment has destroyed the brand. HAHAHA! Sports lovers tend to be Conservative, patriotic, and religious. ESPN DIDN'T DEPEND ON LIBERALS FOR ITS AUDIENCE. ESPN really screwed the pooch. Even more clueless than Target and their bow-down-to-perverts mess.

STFU and DIE already Harry Reid you evil, hateful scum! You're the reason my family left the LDS church. They refused to excommunicate your satanic a**!

Here's the scoop : Comey got wind that the new wiki leaks drop is the communication between Obama and Clinton regarding letting our men die at the embassy being preferable to their covert illegal arms deal running guns to ISIS being discovered. It's over for Clinton. They conspired to allow or permit murder to occur in order to CYA. The level of their evil is beyond belief.

[Nola]

The Lolita Express/Jeffrey Epstein is something I don't think either candidate wants to touch or get much momentum:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/30/the-billionaire-pedophile-who-could-bring-down-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton.html

Stepping back there isn't nearly enough evidence to prove either candidate did anything, but just having to maneuver through that minefield if this narrative gained traction would be exhausting.

[Madrun Badrun]

(Image removed from quote.)
gasp, people are saying

This isn't England guy. 

[Steve Contra]

http://www.jookos.com/2016/10/27/facebook-analytics-reveal-clean-sweep-donald-trump-election-sweeping-42-50-states-including-new-york/

Game over liberals.

[VomKriege]

A compelling argument against Clinton

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152573895011/candidate-risk-assessment

[Joe Molotov]

A compelling argument against Clinton

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152573895011/candidate-risk-assessment

On a scale of 1-10, where 10 is "Drinks Alcohol" and 3 is "Might start a race war", where does reading a Scott Adams' blog post fall?

[Madrun Badrun]

5, 'might be used against you at trial'

[Sausage]

5. Might institute some racist/sexist/homophobic policies (0)

[Joe Molotov]

5. Might institute some racist/sexist/homophobic policies (0)

[Dennis]

Jill Stein choosing Trump over Hillary.

GAF could not be triggered any harder.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1305415

[helios]

Jill Stein choosing Trump over Hillary.

GAF could not be triggered any harder.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1305415

[bluemax]

Peter Thiel thinks apartheid is sound economic strategy:

https://www.facebook.com/deanjulie/posts/10102649798813733

[VomKriege]

Peter Thiel thinks apartheid is sound economic strategy:

https://www.facebook.com/deanjulie/posts/10102649798813733

Millions of jobs lost overnight when the factory for "Whites only" signs had to close.
Thanks, Mandela  !

Jill Stein choosing Trump over Hillary.

GAF could not be triggered any harder.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1305415

I know they're not on the ballot everywhere, but really the US being "First pas the post", it's not like those voters gonna have the opportunity to vote Trump anyway ?

[Cerveza mas fina]

So trump is agead in a poll?

[benjipwns]

Speaking on MSNBC, Carville accused FBI Director James Comey of “acting in concert and coordination with House Republicans. End of story.” . . .

At the conclusion of the interview, Carville said, “I can’t think about the election right now, what I can think about, what I can talk about, is how unprecedented this is. And how the House Republicans and the KGB are trying [to] affect our democracy. And I think that’s a very important issue. I think it’s probably the most important issue anybody’s faced in a presidential campaign in a long, long time.”

cajun style

[james]

Jill Stein choosing Trump over Hillary.

GAF could not be triggered any harder.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1305415

I voted Stein in 2012.

They lost my vote in 2016.

Hows that Roque guy?

[benjipwns]

Don't know which state in you're in, but the "left" candidates with five or more states of ballot access are Roque, Gloria La Riva, and Alyson Kennedy. They also have quite a few write-ins. People worked harder this year.

Laurence Kotilikoff is a write-in almost everywhere and he's "left" on some issues. Monica Moorehead and Mimi Soltysik are write-ins in basically the whole midwest and northwest plus Texas, only on three ballots though.

After that it's more random, the Trots are on the ballot in Louisiana and write-ins a bunch of places.

Princess Khadijah Jacob-Fambro is on the ballot in Louisiana and a write-in in Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. (Though her husband/brother/father/somebody is her VP candidate from the same state, so he can't win the Vice Presidency.)

THIS IS JUDGEMENT DAY..."NOT" A FIRE DRILL!!!

Being born and raised, then surviving The Hard Core Streets of Oakland, California is what makes me The Best Qualified Candidate for this job.

I Princess Khadijah, Dedicate My 2016 Presidential Campaign To The Two Most Important People On The Face Of This Planet Earth MY CHILDREN! To: My Son Prince And My Daughter Little Princess You Are The Reason That Mommy Fight To Keep Breathing! You Two Are The Very Best Thing That Has Ever Happened To Me. You Both Taught Me What UNCONDITIONAL LOVE Feels Like And For That Reason Alone, Mommy PROMISE To Make This A BETTER WORLD For The Both Of You To Live In.

To Every Other Child Not Only In This Country But All Over The World I Promise To You That A Better Day Is Coming! The Suffering That We All Have Experienced Will Soon Be A Thing Of The Past! So Rejoice And Praise The Lord, That A New Day Is Coming!

[james]

I like the Green Party platform. Its also my favorite color. Why cant they get normal people like me to run?

[benjipwns]

Mass media has utterly failed to convey the policy stakes in the election

vox can be so adorable

[Steve Contra]

A friend's husband outed himself last night night as an MRA libertarian and my wife got into a shouting match with him at dinner over reproductive rights.  He stormed out of the restaurant after calling my wife vile, leaving his wife embarrassed and alone and everyone else pretty shocked.

[Great Rumbler]

MRA libertarian

 

[james]

A friend's husband outed himself last night night as an MRA libertarian and my wife got into a shouting match with him at dinner over reproductive rights.  He stormed out of the restaurant after calling my wife vile, leaving his wife embarrassed and alone and everyone else pretty shocked.

And then what happened?