US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[Steve Contra]

Not sure. He didn't return and his wife made no move to leave. Morning must have been awkward.

[Mupepe]

He made his wife find her own way home?  Definitely sounds like the MRA type to me.

Edit: At any point did she elbow him lightly and say "Shut.Up"?

[Human Snorenado]

...you had dinner with JayDubya???

[Mupepe]

...you had dinner with JayDubya???

Awkward dinners exist because they do.

[Brehvolution]

What was his side of the argument? That he should have say in a pregnancy?

[benjipwns]

a lot of those ("MRA libertarian") have starting popping up on some of the ol libertarian haunts the last couple years, it's kinda weird, a lot of them (on places where usernames are kept so one could keep track of whoever) eventually started being loudly against gay marriage/rights and immigration too especially all the gay Mexicans that are going to vote for socialists and force bakers to make wedding cakes

like on reason (which has traditonally been one of the more "socially libertine" libertarian sites in terms of what it writes about, pro-abortion, pro-gay rights/marriage, pro-porn, pro-sex rights, etc.) they swarm the threads about abortion/gays/immigration/sex and post lots of MRA/anti-feminism* stuff in the open threads while seemingly ignoring threads about spending/war/cops/drugs/etc. although some of them whine about how much reason covers the drug war/cops and there was an odd period where they were attacking some writers for criticizing Paul Ryan's budget proposal (2012 had a period for complaints about them "undermining" Romney by criticizing him for Romneycare, the drug war, foreign policy, social conservative views, etc.)

i assume it's a factor of like the GOP being out of the White House so there's lots of anti-Obama Administration articles to draw them in, reason used to have way more Democrat/Democrat-leaners on it, especially during the Bush years but they faded away as the site criticized Obama
 
there i took your post and whined about something else while subtly making it to appear a response

*there were some people who started posting all kinds of the red pill/shaming/etc. stuff, and how you gotta give a woman a "Gibbs slap" sometimes and they never seemed to understand the libertarian "women" on the site (aka guys pretending amirite) and others being "so PC" about that, i guess that's a NAP exception

[Steve Contra]

What was his side of the argument? That he should have say in a pregnancy?

It started as an aside my wife made about the tampon tax and then he was like yeah, well I have it bad too because I have to pay the health surcharge in SF if I bought a croissant and then it got weird.

[brawndolicious]

He was a libertarian arguing against abortion?

[Phoenix Dark]

What was his side of the argument? That he should have say in a pregnancy?

It started as an aside my wife made about the tampon tax and then he was like yeah, well I have it bad too because I have to pay the health surcharge in SF if I bought a croissant and then it got weird.

holy shit

[Steve Contra]

He was a libertarian arguing against abortion?

The main thrust of his argument was that woman shouldn't be complaining about any regulatory mechanisms that restrict their access to reproductive health because he was a man who makes a lot of money and hence has to pay the most taxes. He then got really upset that two women were trying to explain how dumb his argument was and flipped out. It was also very clear he was uncomfortable with things like abortion and birth control in the first place.

[james]

Panicked liberals are taking over my news feed. Fucking Hillary. Grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

I hate getting old.

Remember when Facebook was pictures of girls in their dorms getting ready to go out to party?

And you werent invited but at least you could browse the pictures and fap?

Now its just fucking politics and babies.

[benjipwns]

The main thrust of his argument was that woman shouldn't be complaining about any regulatory mechanisms that restrict their access to reproductive health because he was a man who makes a lot of money and hence has to pay the most taxes. He then got really upset that two women were trying to explain how dumb his argument was and flipped out. It was also very clear he was uncomfortable with things like abortion and birth control in the first place.

sounds exactly like the guys i was talking about, especially the undercurrent of being uncomfortable with sex and similar topics

never met one in real life tho, i'm so jealous, especially with the walk out

[benjipwns]

 

[benjipwns]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/opinion/donald-trump-voters-just-hear-me-out.html

This is my last column until after the election, so I’d like to address the people least likely to read it:

okay bye

[Raist]

Not sure. He didn't return and his wife made no move to leave. Morning must have been awkward.

She was obviously signalling for a threesome.

[Phoenix Dark]

Between this guy and the pro-Israel dude on his facebook, Contra clearly has the best rogue gallery on The Bore.

[Nola]

Not sure. He didn't return and his wife made no move to leave. Morning must have been awkward.

She was obviously signalling for a threesome.

Would that now make the husband a "cuckservative?"

 

[Syph]

What was his side of the argument? That he should have say in a pregnancy?

oh dont worry, he will now

[agrajag]

A friend's husband outed himself last night night as an MRA libertarian and my wife got into a shouting match with him at dinner over reproductive rights.  He stormed out of the restaurant after calling my wife vile, leaving his wife embarrassed and alone and everyone else pretty shocked.

How can one reconcile being anti abortion and libertarian at the same time?

[CatsCatsCats]

Because inalienable freedoms extend to all human life, it's pretty obvious how they get there

[Yeti]

What was his side of the argument? That he should have say in a pregnancy?

It started as an aside my wife made about the tampon tax and then he was like yeah, well I have it bad too because I have to pay the health surcharge in SF if I bought a croissant and then it got weird.

What was he planning on using that croissant for? 

[benjipwns]

How can one reconcile being anti abortion and libertarian at the same time?

The baby's right to life trumps the mother's self-ownership rights.

It's probably the most contentious issue in libertarianism as it doesn't have an easy answer unless you make certain assumptions, so everyone agrees to just not talk about it.

The Party is officially pro-choice though. And usually favors those who are (like Johnson and Weld) over those who are pro-life.

http://www.libertariansforlife.org/
http://reason.com/blog/2015/08/14/sorry-rand-paul-haters-pro-life-libertar (lol 1000+ comments)

I was anti-abortion for years but decided the many questions were eventually irreconcilable. Honestly, now I'm just of the opinion that technology is taking care of it with the more and better forms of birth control. But I'm not for criminalizing it or restricting it through "safety" regulations.

[Human Snorenado]

How can one reconcile being anti abortion and libertarian at the same time?

The baby's right to life trumps the mother's self-ownership rights.

It's probably the most contentious issue in libertarianism as it doesn't have an easy answer unless you make certain assumptions, so everyone agrees to just not talk about it.

The Party is officially pro-choice though. And usually favors those who are (like Johnson and Weld) over those who are pro-life.

http://www.libertariansforlife.org/
http://reason.com/blog/2015/08/14/sorry-rand-paul-haters-pro-life-libertar (lol 1000+ comments)

Uh...

[benjipwns]

I meant with other libertarians, but that's a joke as proven by the reason article comment thread I linked.

[agrajag]

I meant with other libertarians, but that's a joke as proven by the reason article comment thread I linked.

What about in situation's where the mother's life is at risk? Whose right to live do those libertations deem more important?

[TakingBackSunday]

Silver has it down to 68% 

what a laughingstock

[agrajag]

Silver has it down to 68% 

what a laughingstock

he has also turned FL red

[TakingBackSunday]

Based on some poor polls. the GOTV numbers and other aggregates suggest Florida is still relatively safe.

edit: seriously, just check the breakdown of the latest florida polls on 538.  He's using mid-to-low grade polls that show Trump up 2-6 points to basically override high weighted and rated polls showing a Clinton advantage.

[james]

Clintons internals must be devastating

I just saw a 60 second anti-Trump ad during the World Series.

IN NEW YORK CITY

Is she really cratering this badly that she thinks shes losing New York?


....or did this poor naive liberals donate every penny they had so she can throw it away?

[agrajag]

Nice concern trolling there breh

[benjipwns]

Clintons internals must be devastating

I just saw a 60 second anti-Trump ad during the World Series.

IN NEW YORK CITY

Is she really cratering this badly that she thinks shes losing New York?


....or did this poor naive liberals donate every penny they had so she can throw it away?

maybe they did a national ad buy for the network to ensure it was on during the game

Silver has it down to 68% 

what a laughingstock

Hillary Clinton, like President Obama four years ago, has spent a lot of time with a chance of winning the election that is somewhere between 60 and 80 percent in our forecast. Right now, she’s squarely in the middle of that range, with a 68 percent chance according to our polls-only model and 67 percent according to polls-plus.

I’ve found that probabilities in the 70 percent range can be especially difficult to write about, because there’s the possibility of a misinterpretation in either direction. On the one hand, in a 70-30 race, you can usually cherry-pick your way to calling the race a tossup without that much effort, even when it really isn’t. We often saw that occur in 2012, when reporters and commentators consistently characterized the election as too close to call despite a fairly steady lead for Obama in swing-state polls.

On the other hand, a 70-30 race indicates that the bulk of the evidence lines up on one side of the case — in this case, that Clinton rather than Donald Trump will probably be elected president.

]The good news for Clinton jumps out in the chart. She led in seven of eight live-caller polls — and 22 of 23 polls overall — in the states within her firewall.
...
Overall, the swing-state polls were about in line with what the model expected. Clinton’s win probability fell slightly on the day, in fact, although it was as a result of her continuously mediocre numbers in national tracking polls. The state polls were a wash in our model.

Arun Hegde
I get the sense that people here are too hung up on the model. The model is just that - a model; and there is really no good way of assessing its validity as it relates to this election anymore than of any other model. The more important takeaway is the big picture analysis versus the specific probability that is the output of the model; which is that the current snapshot seems to indicate that Clinton's firewall is relatively intact but she has low likelihood of going much beyond that given the discrete nature of how electoral votes are awarded. If I was a Clinton supporter, I'd say that's not the worst place to be given Friday's news. If I was a Trump supporter, I'd be disappointed that some pretty bad news for Clinton didn't "breach" her firewall more than it seems to have.

Carolyn Webb
ANOTHER FULL BLOWN SLAM DOWN! This morning her chances were 71 and now in TWELVE HOURS she has been f---ING SLAMMED DOWN FOUR MORE POINTS in your forecast!

WHAT THE F!!!!!!

Please don't say she is not being BUTCHERED!!!!

This is WORSE than the SWIFTBOAT attacks!

LOSING 14 points in FIVE DAYS!!!!

When does the BLOOD FLOW STOP

You ARE giving TRUMP everything he wants on a SILVER PLATTER!

You DO WANT HIM to get this country!

[chronovore]

...you had dinner with JayDubya???

I keep mashing "Like," but it appears that's just a regular toggle UI.

[CatsCatsCats]

When does the blood stop?!?

[benjipwns]

When does the blood stop?!?

usually after 3-5 days i think

[thisismyusername]

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a50256/trump-child-rape-accuser-cancels-press-conference/

Welp, hopefully she'll get the justice she deserves once this week is over. Lord knows the crazies won't leave her alone if that happens though.

[benjipwns]

BREAKING:

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[benjipwns]

[Madrun Badrun]

I haven't been paying attention to this thread the last few days, is Donald Trump president yet? 

[Great Rumbler]

I haven't been paying attention to this thread the last few days, is Donald Trump president yet? 

He's already dictator for life, breh.

[Madrun Badrun]

cool, thanks

[CajoleJuice]

[Syph]

welp President Trump confirmed for Brawl I guess

[Sausage]

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/11/3/13506706/hillary-clinton-predicted-cubs-world-series-win-presidency-year-ago

[agrajag]

Based on some poor polls. the GOTV numbers and other aggregates suggest Florida is still relatively safe.

edit: seriously, just check the breakdown of the latest florida polls on 538.  He's using mid-to-low grade polls that show Trump up 2-6 points to basically override high weighted and rated polls showing a Clinton advantage.

He put Florida back in blue 

It's really hard to take whatever he's doing now. His model is not predictive, it's reactive. It's going to be 100% accurate because he's going to keep updating it after the election.

[benjipwns]

It's only blue in the polls-only forecast, still red in the other two.

He doesn't manually change the states, hell, he doesn't even add the polls anymore and maintain it, the staffers ESPN paid for do that. He only works on the model at the end of each "season" now and it's no longer just his model, it's a team effort, though he still signs off on it.

Models that don't fluctuate are far more suspect if they're black boxes. Wang's fluctuates just as much, but his prediction for the winner doesn't because he cuts off the long tails that Nate loves (in all his models, PECOTA, CARMELO, etc.) to keep in for uncertainty reasons. That's why his %'s always line up closer to the betting markets where people are hedging. Wang is arguably more correct in this instance because there's only one actual trial, unlike in sports where we have multiple trials with clear rules.

If Nate's model doesn't continue to get closer I'll be surprised because it should start dropping Gary further. The RCP average is already below 538's future predictions. That drop has been corresponding with Trump's rise as I assume GOPers return home and the anti-Hillary pro-Gary vote drops out of the electorate altogether.

People would probably freak out less if he didn't even assign percentages, especially ones with decimal points. Just straight flip states on the slightest lead like RCP does, just under his model and hidden. Overprecision almost always seems to make people irrationally skeptical.

And I'm not sure how you can say his model isn't predictive. It's predicting a Hillary victory. If Hillary wins, it will have predicted accurately. Whether he gives her chances on election day of 51% or 101% is really kinda irrelevant. You can't measure it to check against, his goal is accurately predicting the final result not projecting the unknowable. He does the other because of the horserace mentality and an attempt at transparency.

You can make a predictive model that only takes two pieces of data into account, the last election result and the Pythagorean result from the national poll average. IIRC, it would have nailed at least 48/50 states in 2012. You could have done even better if you also included merely the state poll average to reorder the state distribution.

I guess I don't understand the Nate Silver obsession in general?

[benjipwns]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/

In fact, while FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts are sometimes seen as extremely bold when compared with news media coverage of campaigns,4 they are fairly conservative compared with some other forecasting models. For a variety of reasons,5 statistical models are prone toward overconfidence unless they’re designed carefully.

The best test of a probabilistic forecast is whether it’s well calibrated. By that I mean: Out of all FiveThirtyEight forecasts that give candidates about a 75 percent shot of winning, do the candidates in fact win about 75 percent of the time over the long run? It’s a problem if these candidates win only 55 percent of the time. But from a statistical standpoint, it’s just as much of a problem if they win 95 percent of the time.

The problem of course being the lack of Presidential races.

[Mandark]

Based on some poor polls. the GOTV numbers and other aggregates suggest Florida is still relatively safe.

edit: seriously, just check the breakdown of the latest florida polls on 538.  He's using mid-to-low grade polls that show Trump up 2-6 points to basically override high weighted and rated polls showing a Clinton advantage.

He put Florida back in blue 

It's really hard to take whatever he's doing now. His model is not predictive, it's reactive. It's going to be 100% accurate because he's going to keep updating it after the election.

This is like the old stat-based NBA power rankings on ESPN, where they'd be updated automatically and everyone would freak out and yell at John Hollinger for dropping their team after a loss.

[VomKriege]

Why the fixation for polls at this point though ?

[benjipwns]

it's the only "score" available and people want to know if their team is leading, especially this late in the game

[agrajag]

it's the only "score" available and people want to know if their team is leading, especially this late in the game

That's not true, early voting numbers are coming out on a daily basis.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Panicked liberals are taking over my news feed. Fucking Hillary. Grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

I hate getting old.

Remember when Facebook was pictures of girls in their dorms getting ready to go out to party?

And you werent invited but at least you could browse the pictures and fap?

Now its just fucking politics and babies.

newsfeed

[Samson Manhug]

Panicked liberals are taking over my news feed. Fucking Hillary. Grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

I hate getting old.

Remember when Facebook was pictures of girls in their dorms getting ready to go out to party?

And you werent invited but at least you could browse the pictures and fap?

Now its just fucking politics and babies.

newsfeed

I don't recall why I quoted this post

[james]

Panicked liberals are taking over my news feed. Fucking Hillary. Grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

I hate getting old.

Remember when Facebook was pictures of girls in their dorms getting ready to go out to party?

And you werent invited but at least you could browse the pictures and fap?

Now its just fucking politics and babies.

newsfeed

I've never felt so connected to another person

Trump brings us all together

[Phoenix Dark]

Panicked liberals are taking over my news feed. Fucking Hillary. Grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

I hate getting old.

Remember when Facebook was pictures of girls in their dorms getting ready to go out to party?

And you werent invited but at least you could browse the pictures and fap?

Now its just fucking politics and babies.

Gross.

[Madrun Badrun]

Maybe Trump can make facebook great again as well.

[CatsCatsCats]

He does seem well versed in walls...

[Joe Molotov]

>implying that facebook was ever great

[Sausage]

Panicked liberals are taking over my news feed. Fucking Hillary. Grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

I hate getting old.

Remember when Facebook was pictures of girls in their dorms getting ready to go out to party?

And you werent invited but at least you could browse the pictures and fap?

Now its just fucking politics and babies.

Thats on insta and snapchat now

[james]

>implying that facebook was ever great

When it started the search feature was pretty damn good. Great even.

Search by specific dorm
Search by specific floor
Search by class
No privacy filters.

JACKPOT.

[Syph]

>implying that facebook was ever great

When it started the search feature was pretty damn good. Great even.

Search by specific dorm
Search by specific floor
Search by class
No privacy filters.

JACKPOT.