Oh, to add onto my earlier post, we'll actually "know" earlier in the night, not long after 8pm Eastern because all the states Trump basically needs to win close or will be deep into their counts by then:

It doesn't matter much how you allocate the states west of the Mississippi, either like 2012, 2008 or 2004, other than on the margins. If you don't grab at least North Carolina, Ohio and Florida along with one of Michigan, Virginia and Pennsylvania, states like Nevada and Iowa probably aren't going to matter. (You have to get both Iowa and Nevada to offset losing Virginia and win 270-268.)
Losing both NC and Virginia, for example, makes it impossible even if Trump grabs Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa
and Colorado.