Serious stonks strategy talk

[Great Rumbler]

[jorma]

How are the Vegas stonks doing?

I think it was up 2 hundred something

Oddly, my United puts have done the worst, only up like 30 percent. But theres still time for Trump to declare flying illegal

Did you already forget that you didn't actually buy United Airlines? 

[BisMarckie]

How are the Vegas stonks doing?

I think it was up 2 hundred something

Oddly, my United puts have done the worst, only up like 30 percent. But theres still time for Trump to declare flying illegal

Did you already forget that you didn't actually buy United Airlines? 

That’s why I trust James with my hard earned money.

[team filler]

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1237926757665251328

[james]

How are the Vegas stonks doing?

I think it was up 2 hundred something

Oddly, my United puts have done the worst, only up like 30 percent. But theres still time for Trump to declare flying illegal

Did you already forget that you didn't actually buy United Airlines? 

I circled back and bought some after my friend Jared told me he was about to ban flights from Europe

Aal puts going to print

[Pennywise]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/pharma-and-life-sciences/hundreds-of-corona-patients-allowed-to-try-gileads-ebola-drug

Should buy Gilead Sciences.

 

[brawndolicious]

Holy shit its already a 2000 point drop, (8.5%). Obviously it's the biggest single day point drop but if it doesn't rebound by the end of day, then that makes it the biggest percentage drop since 1987.

[Flannel Boy]

21,612.53 −1,940.69 (8.24%)

[Joe Molotov]

HODL

[brawndolicious]

Who wants to bet on when we hit 15,000?

A 50% drop from the peak? That took like a year to happen after the 2008 meltdown.

If unemployment shoots up then maybe it will but it seems unlikely. WTF knows though.

[Flannel Boy]

Who wants to bet on when we hit 15,000?

Hard pass. 

[james]

A special fuck you to Occam who told me over PM to sell my SPY puts because it was the smart play

I could have bought the bore dot com with my tendies

[brawndolicious]

For everyone who doesn't invest, just know that this is a TERRIBLE time to invest. There is just volatility, these types of events are decades apart and there is no textbook example of how to act.

I do it for fun. Yesterday my put options (betting against a stock) were down 50% and now they're up 80% from what I bought them at on Tuesday. On Wednesday afternoon, I was totally prepared to lose what I put in.

When the market acts smart, you act smart. When it acts dumb, you act dumb. This might be a fun time to invest but be prepared to lose everything for no good reason. And in case you're wondering, I was betting AGAINST a GOOD company (AMD). So it's really not about how much successful a company is being right now. It's just all chaos and fear.

Edit: I'm up over a 100% now. Again, this is why they call it stonks.

[brawndolicious]

I think the biggest reason why you don't want to invest right now, even though the economy might "recover" fully in a few years, is that GDP is a unit root process, not trend stationary, so its recovery level might be significantly lower than what the talking heads are expecting. This is what led to a kind of infamous back and forth between Paul Krugman and Greg Mankiw. And this also happens to be why the World Bank growth forecasts from 2010 onward were always way, way off.

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/roots-of-evil-wonkish/

We're definitely in a bad spot. The unemployment numbers from the last few years are over-inflated with contractor positions which means people are often poorly compensated and can be laid off easily. I would not be surprised at all if the recovery is slower than 2009-2012.

[Propagandhim]

I can't believe Lagarde right now. 

[james]

My Disney put is up 538.55% 

[BisMarckie]

. When it acts dumb, you act dumb.

Again, this is why gave money to a guy who buys Under Armour put options by accident. 

[team filler]

My Disney put is up 538.55% 

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1238144544341884928

[james]

And now my puts are plummeting because the fed is taking all our money and spending it at once 

[james]

I lost like $1000 in profits in the last 4 minutes


Dont worry boys, im holding. Feds got nothing on me

[BisMarckie]

Excessive greed is a necessary character trait for a successful options trader.

NEVER SETTLE FOR A MEAGER 500% PROFIT

[james]

Can the stock experts please chime in on whats happening right now

[james]

Is this how inflation happens

[james]

You miming Reddit and making fat returns despite knowing literally nothing is kind of like when Yugi lets the Pharaoh take over the wheel and Yugi wins every match

Excuse me but I read various options guides and none of them talked about the fed doing this

[BisMarckie]

The US government is taking my money. It‘s just like Weimar Germany.

[Propagandhim]

I love you, James.  Read a fucking CNBC article or something .      Fed ramped up repo program (adding liquidity to bank lending) that it announced a day ago.  Also increased amount of instruments for purchase, including coupon bonds which ppl have been demanding for awhile.  What does this mean for your tendies?  Who the fuck knows.  You're holding onto puts that made 5x it's money on the quickest downturn in decades.  At this point, I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies, but the fact that you're still holding onto these things, despite not knowing much of anything (which is okay, if you're new to this), and after that kind of serendipity ...    You're hilarious and I love you.

[james]

You didn't know what quantitative easing is?

I know it means we're bailing out wall street again

[james]

I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies

I didnt understand why the trading volume on some dates was so low (and the bid ask spread so high), but a nice person on wsb explained to me that some weeks are better than others and I should stick to the popular closing dates and thats been working out well for me

[james]

That's actually not what QE is, it's the federal reserve purchasing bonds back so that banks can lend their money instead of waiting for treasury notes to mature. The bailout was when the federal government purchased toxic assets from failing banks and gave them enough money to stay afloat while they clean up their books and recapitalize.

Dont bonds make like 1%? Seems pretty toxic to use my tax money to buy something with such small gains. Maybe the feds should start buying puts.

[Propagandhim]

I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies

I didnt understand why the trading volume on some dates was so low (and the bid ask spread so high), but a nice person on wsb explained to me that some weeks are better than others and I should stick to the popular closing dates and thats been working out well for me

Because it's a gambling instrument.  They were not offered in the past because they were such a rotten deal, although they've gotten better in recent years.   Weeklies allow people with small accounts to day trade because you barely need any margin, and the theta decay is so quick on the final moments of expiry.  Legally, you're allowed 3 day trades per week if you have under 25k in your account.  But yes, the bid/ask is terrible. 

A little clarification:  They're a gambling instrument and a poor choice for the average retail trader.  They're a good hedging tool for hedgefunds that can tank market risk, and regularly selling thousands of out-of-the-money weekly options scales well as a strategy, but is obviously out of reach for people like us.

[BisMarckie]

Holding onto a put option that already made 500% profit is like, to use a sports betting analogy, betting on a huge underdog that miracolously pulled ahead hoping they would run up the score.

[james]

I literally just said that the fed doesn't use your tax money to do this, the printer just goes brrrrrr and money floods into the economy.

Who funds the printer dickwad you ever bought toner before it's expensive as fuck

 

[james]

I'm just impressed that you didn't get suckered into buying weeklies

I didnt understand why the trading volume on some dates was so low (and the bid ask spread so high), but a nice person on wsb explained to me that some weeks are better than others and I should stick to the popular closing dates and thats been working out well for me

Because it's a gambling instrument.  They were not offered in the past because they were such a rotten deal, although they've gotten better in recent years.   Weeklies allow people with small accounts to day trade because you barely need any margin, and the theta decay is so quick on the final moments of expiry.  Legally, you're allowed 3 day trades per week if you have under 25k in your account .  But yes, the bid/ask is terrible.

Someone on wsb posted about their sister being flagged for day trading and luckily I googled that shit and avoided some serious consequences

 

Who knew the free market was so fucking regulated

[james]

Holding onto a put option that already made 500% profit is like, to use a sports betting analogy, betting on a huge underdog that miracolously pulled ahead hoping they would run up the score.

Relevant:

 

[james]

I really don't know anything about gambling on insurance for stocks but QE doesn't satisfy me in the absence of fiscal stimulus and people are saying that the floor could be as low as 30%. I also don't think people understand just how bad the oil price cratering in combination with countrywide lockdowns is going to shake financial markets. Prices recovered slightly from cratering because people reacted to the news but the serious investors have all left the market and are praying to God.

So youre saying I should hold onto those puts

 

[TEEEPO]

the only thing more hilarious than james is the fed 

[Flannel Boy]

https://twitter.com/ShaneDoorish/status/1238160637613785093

[james]

Dow is back down 1,600 points as Fed intervention causes just a temporary respite from selling

It lasted only minutes.

Like masturbating into a forest fire

[Propagandhim]

I'm interested to read all the opinion pieces in the Wall Street Journal about investor confidence during a public health crisis, and why stimulus isn't working, without once addressing the American public's confidence in its private healthcare system.

[james]

My Disney puts are back up 610.10%

Get fucked fed.

[james]

My accidental UA puts are up 744.42% 

[brawndolicious]

My accidental UA puts are up 744.42% 

  To be fair, I guess athletic wear is a non-essential.

[Propagandhim]

My accidental UA puts are up 744.42% 

"My accidental Under Armor puts are up seven hundred and forty percent."

Newsfeed.

[BisMarckie]

I would have sold these options immediately for these returns. But then again, that's why I don't run an international brokerage firm.

[james]

Do they sponsor the NBA or something? What am I missing here

[james]

I would have sold these options immediately for these returns. But then again, that's why I don't run an international brokerage firm.

It feels silly to sell at less than 1,000% gain

[Propagandhim]

Do they sponsor the NBA or something? What am I missing here

They weren't doing well prior to this event, it's just compounded turmoil.

[james]

How is it a mystery to you why airlines are bleeding out the ass?

UA is under armor you fool. I thought I was buying United Airlines but I wasnt

 

[james]

I wonder how much of the UA movement are idiots like me and shosty who think we're getting a deal on United Airlines puts 

It happened with Zoom over and over again

[james]

Remember when 1,000 points was a big number

Now we dropping 2,000 and it's just another weekday

[james]

Ok reddit is saying to buy long-term puts on Zoom (ZM) because theyre massively overvalued and no one will actually stick with them once corona rolls over.

Thoughts?

[TEEEPO]

a supply-side recession mixed with dangerously low-interest rates that removed the market's inherent risk of relying on debt which led to an exponential growth in global debt, so what could possibly go wrong with the feds ready to set interest rates well past zero despite the inevitable demand shock that will send inflation numbers spiraling in march? clearly the fed knows that they have neither the ammunition nor tools to combat a global pandemic and they could've possibly used up all their ammunition in dealing with inflation

the fed is shook and you should be too 

save for james, james is a fucking champ 

[TEEEPO]

Ok reddit is saying to buy long-term puts on Zoom (ZM) because theyre massively overvalued and no one will actually stick with them once corona rolls over.

Thoughts?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/zoom-video-downloads-spike-but-stock-valuation-remains-high-51584026978

[james]

Im leaning no on the August ZM puts, way too pricey

Theyre trading at $111 right now and a put for $85 on August 21 costs 12.30 a pop

Thats too much right?



Edit: see above, apparently the big wigs have a target of $110 long term, close call on this one 

[BisMarckie]

I'm not worried about inflation, the only other choice is people starving to death and debt deflation. I guess creditors would be worried about inflation though... fuck em

I don't remember where I read it, but I read a piece how post WWI style turbo-inflation would save the middle class. 

[Propagandhim]

Ok reddit is saying to buy long-term puts on Zoom (ZM) because theyre massively overvalued and no one will actually stick with them once corona rolls over.

Thoughts?

Im leaning no on the August ZM puts, way too pricey

Theyre trading at $111 right now and a put for $85 on August 21 costs 12.30 a pop

Thats too much right?



Edit: see above, apparently the big wigs have a target of $110 long term, close call on this one 

Corona rolling over in August?

[james]

Ok reddit is saying to buy long-term puts on Zoom (ZM) because theyre massively overvalued and no one will actually stick with them once corona rolls over.

Thoughts?

Im leaning no on the August ZM puts, way too pricey

Theyre trading at $111 right now and a put for $85 on August 21 costs 12.30 a pop

Thats too much right?



Edit: see above, apparently the big wigs have a target of $110 long term, close call on this one 

Corona rolling over in August?

China solved their issues in about 4 months.

So I think 6 months for the US to get their shit together is a good call right?

[Propagandhim]

I don't know.  I get the feeling that a worldwide virus this contagious, where world leaders are saying that 70% of their citizenry will be infected won't likely be solved by August.  I'm a nobody, though.  I have no idea. 

[TEEEPO]

i'm not an expert but this is how i read into those numbers: 70% will be infected by god knows which strain and despite coronaviruses having a low mutation rate compared to say the flu, they still mutate, so yea, we're fucked

[brawndolicious]

I divested myself near the bottom in the last 30 minutes. On a $450 investment, I sold for about $950, pretty decent ROI.

Have NO idea what will happen tomorrow. The next six months will suck for the economy.